Liga Profesional · kicked off 19 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Gimnasia Mendoza is priced at 2.19, the shortest of the three outcomes, implying roughly 46 percent win probability.
Deportivo Riestra's best price of 3.95 implies only about 25 percent, making them clear market outsiders for this trip.
The draw at 2.95 implies close to 34 percent, a meaningful alternative given the gap between the two teams.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.62 carries a market-implied probability near 62 percent, though our model's confidence is slightly lower at 59 percent, producing a value edge of -5.12 percent.
W/D/L shown from Gimnasia Mendoza's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Liga Profesional action sees Gimnasia Mendoza host Deportivo Riestra, with the bookmakers making the home side a clear-cut favourite. The best available price of 2.19 on Gimnasia implies a win probability of roughly 46 percent, well ahead of Riestra's 3.95 price, which points to only around 25 percent. The draw sits at 2.95, implying about 34 percent, a live outcome given the gap between the two teams' prices. Rather than picking a winner outright, our model turns to the goals market, flagging Over 1.5 goals at 1.62 as the recommended angle, with the market pricing that outcome at close to 62 percent and our model's own confidence sitting at 59 percent. That combination suggests a fixture where at least two goals are considered likely, even if the identity of the winner remains uncertain on paper.
Verdict: Over 1.5 goals at 1.62 is the flagged pick, backed by a solid implied probability near 60 percent, though the negative value edge means it is not priced as a standout market inefficiency. Treat it as a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-conviction one, and size stakes with care.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-0, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Gimnasia Mendoza to win at odds of 2.48.
Gimnasia Mendoza is the market favourite at 2.19, implying roughly a 46 percent win probability, compared with about 25 percent implied for Deportivo Riestra at 3.95.
The draw is available at 2.95, which implies a probability of around 34 percent, sitting between the two teams' win chances.
No standard value picks against the match-result market clear the threshold here. The recommended angle is instead Over 1.5 goals at 1.62, though its edge is actually slightly negative at -5.12 percent, so it should be viewed as a reasoned pick rather than a strong value bet.
The tip lost — final score 0-0 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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