Süper Lig · Fri · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
The price gap is enormous: Galatasaray at 1.15 versus Akhisar Belediyespor at 10.25 shows the market rates a home win as far more likely than an away upset.
Implied probabilities read roughly 87% Galatasaray, 17% draw and 10% Akhisar Belediyespor before overround adjustments.
The recommended Galatasaray win carries a value edge of about -48%, meaning the short 1.15 price offers little betting value despite the strong favouritism.
Our model sees the draw as the standout for value, pricing its fair probability near 29% against an available 5.75, implying a positive edge of around 65%.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akhisar Belediyespor | 12.50 | Betclic (FR) | 8.0% |
| Galatasaray | 1.20 | Betfair | 83.3% |
| Draw | 7.29 | Pinnacle | 13.7% |
Galatasaray host Akhisar Belediyespor in the Süper Lig, and the market leaves little doubt about which way it leans. Galatasaray are priced at just 1.15 with Betclic, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 87% before margin, marking them as strong favourites on home soil. Akhisar Belediyespor are a distant 10.25, or about 10% implied, while the draw sits at 5.75, near 17%. Our model highlights Galatasaray to win at 1.15 as the recommended pick, though it carries a market-implied confidence of only around 45% in value terms and a negative value edge of roughly -48%. In short, the price is short and the perceived value on the favourite is poor. The more interesting angle statistically is the draw, where our model flags a fair probability of about 29% against a best price of 5.75. Treat these prices as a guide, not a certainty.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Galatasaray to win at 1.15. It reflects clear favouritism but offers weak value at such a short price, with a negative edge near -48%. Returns would be small relative to stake, so weigh the low potential payout against the risk and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 16:00 | Kasimpasa SK v Trabzonspor | 4.10 | 3.83 | 1.90 |
| 15 Aug 16:00 | Torku Konyaspor v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.56 | 3.30 | 3.14 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Genclerbirligi SK v Fenerbahce | 6.81 | 4.58 | 1.50 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Gazişehir Gaziantep v Alanyaspor | 2.66 | 3.50 | 2.71 |
| 16 Aug 16:00 | Basaksehir v Kocaelispor | 1.55 | 4.40 | 6.75 |
| 16 Aug 18:30 | Amed SK v Erzurum BB | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 18:30 | Besiktas JK v Eyüpspor | 1.35 | 5.70 | 8.95 |
| 17 Aug 18:30 | Samsunspor v Goztepe | 2.20 | 3.43 | 3.52 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.25 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 48% confidence rating.
Galatasaray are heavy favourites at 1.15, implying roughly 87% before margin. Akhisar Belediyespor are outsiders at 10.25, around 10% implied.
The draw is available at 5.75 with Betclic, implying around 17%. Our model actually rates its fair probability higher, near 29%.
Not according to our model, which shows a negative value edge of about -48% on the Galatasaray win. The flagged value instead sits on the draw at 5.75.
Galatasaray vs Akhisar Belediyespor takes place Fri · 18:30 in the Süper Lig.
English 
Español 
Português 
Deutsch 
Français