Brasileirão · Sun · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Flamengo at 1.30 imply roughly 77% win probability, a strong favourite tag versus Vitoria's 11.30 (about 9%).
The price gap between the two sides is wide, reflecting a market that sees limited upside for the visitors.
The draw is priced at 5.48 (around 18% implied), yet our model's fair probability of 21% points to a positive edge of 17.35%.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.18 carries a 44% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.17%, so it is not a standout price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 14.7% | 6.80 |
| 1-0 | 12.8% | 7.81 |
| 3-0 | 11.3% | 8.88 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.52 |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | 15.06 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.30 and 0.59. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Flamengo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.24 | Coolbet | 80.6% |
| Vitoria | 14.50 | Betfair | 6.9% |
| Draw | 6.40 | Betfair | 15.6% |
Flamengo host Vitoria in this Brasileirão fixture as heavy favourites, and the market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. At a best price of 1.30, Flamengo are priced with an implied probability of around 77%, while Vitoria's 11.30 translates to roughly 9% and the draw at 5.48 sits near 18%. Those numbers describe a clear mismatch on paper, with the bookmaker expecting the home side to control proceedings. Our model, however, does not chase the short favourite. Instead it flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.18, an implied confidence of about 44%, though the calculated value edge here is negative at -4.17%, meaning it is not priced generously. A separate note of interest is the draw, where our fair probability of 21% suggests the 5.48 price carries a positive edge. Read the sections below before deciding how, or whether, to stake.
Verdict: The model's headline pick is Under 2.5 goals at 2.18, backed by roughly 44% confidence but a slightly negative value edge, making it a modest rather than compelling call. The draw at 5.48 shows more theoretical value. Treat both as calculated positions and stake responsibly, as outcomes remain uncertain.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.33, with a 41% confidence rating.
Flamengo are the clear favourites at a best price of 1.30, implying about a 77% chance. Vitoria are long outsiders at 11.30, around 9% implied.
The draw is available at 5.48, implying roughly 18%. Our model estimates a fair probability of 21%, giving a positive edge of 17.35%, so it stands out as a value angle on paper.
The model recommends Under 2.5 goals at 2.18 with about 44% implied confidence. Note the value edge is negative at -4.17%, so it is not priced favourably and should be judged accordingly.
Flamengo vs Vitoria takes place Sun · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
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