English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 Today · 21:30
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.66
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceMedium · 62%
AI Value edge 3.4% · best price at Matchbook
Bet at Matchbook Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Flamengo are priced at 1.4, implying roughly a 71% chance of victory according to the market.
02
Bragantino-SP's 8.5 price implies only about a 12% winning probability, reflecting a heavy underdog status.
03
The draw at 4.82 sits at roughly 21% implied probability, a distant alternative to the home win.
04
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.78 carries a -4.08% value edge, meaning the model does not see it as a clear value bet despite recommending it.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 44%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 13.7% | 7.29 |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 3-0 | 10.4% | 9.63 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.00 |
| 1-1 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
| 3-1 | 6.9% | 14.51 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.27 and 0.66. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.70 | +3.9% | 18% | 55 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
FLA Flamengo WWWWL
13 Sept 26 vs Corinthians 2-1
6 Sept 26 @ Clube do Remo 1-0
2 Sept 26 vs Mirassol 2-0
30 Aug 26 vs Botafogo 3-0
22 Aug 26 @ Cruzeiro 1-2
BRA Bragantino-SP DLLWD
12 Sept 26 @ Botafogo 1-1
5 Sept 26 vs Bahia 2-3
29 Aug 26 @ São Paulo 1-2
23 Aug 26 vs Grêmio 1-0
15 Aug 26 @ Paranaense 1-1
Head-to-head: Flamengo v Bragantino-SP
Full H2H history → L 3 Apr 26
Bragantino 3-0 FlamengoBrasileirão
W 23 Nov 25
Flamengo 3-0 BragantinoBrasileirão
W 24 Jul 25
Bragantino 1-2 FlamengoBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Flamengo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · FLA | X | 2 · BRA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.37 | 5.60 | 10.00 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.35 | 5.52 | 8.96 |
| BetAnything | 1.35 | 5.52 | 8.96 |
| Pinnacle | 1.35 | 5.40 | 9.28 |
| GTbets | 1.39 | 4.98 | 8.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Flamengo vs Bragantino-SP: match preview
Flamengo host Bragantino-SP in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leaves little room for doubt about the favourite. Prices of 1.4 for Flamengo, 4.82 for the draw and 8.5 for Bragantino translate to implied probabilities of roughly 71% for a home win, just under 21% for a draw and only 12% for a Bragantino victory. That gap illustrates a wide gulf in how bookmakers view this contest, with the visitors given only a slim chance of an upset. Rather than backing the outright result, our model points elsewhere: an Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.78, which implies a break-even probability near 56% and reflects the model's own 54% confidence read. It is presented as the recommended angle for this match, though the numbers below show it comes with a modest negative edge rather than a clear-cut market inefficiency.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.78 is the standout suggestion here, backed by a 54% model confidence, though its -4.08% edge shows it is not a strong value play. Flamengo's dominant match-odds favouritism makes the result market less appealing for value seekers; stake modestly and manage risk accordingly.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
| 7 Oct 23:30 | Botafogo v Vasco da Gama | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Flamengo vs Bragantino-SP?+
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 62% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in the Flamengo vs Bragantino-SP match?+
Flamengo are strong favourites at odds of 1.4, implying about a 71% chance of winning according to the market.
What is the draw priced at for this fixture?+
The draw is priced at 4.82, which implies roughly a 21% probability of that outcome.
Is there a value bet for Flamengo vs Bragantino-SP?+
The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 as its recommended bet, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.08%, so it should not be seen as a guaranteed edge over the market.
When does the match kick off?+
Flamengo vs Bragantino-SP takes place Today · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.