English ⚽ Serie A 🕒 20 Sept 2026
Our tip
Napoli to win
Odds
2.27
LostResult
1-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
46%Pre-match conf.
-2.16%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Napoli are market favourites at 2.27, implying roughly a 44% chance of victory, the highest of the three outcomes.
02
Fiorentina sit at 3.46 (about 29% implied) and the draw at 3.5 (about 28.5% implied), with barely half a point separating those two prices.
03
The recommended Napoli bet carries a quoted value edge of 5.29% versus the market price, alongside a 46% model confidence figure.
04
No other selection in the value-picks list cleared the site's threshold, meaning Fiorentina and the draw are not currently flagged as value plays.
Team form
FIO Fiorentina DWLLL
20 Sept 26 vs Napoli 1-1
11 Sept 26 @ Venezia FC 4-2
5 Sept 26 vs Torino 1-2
29 Aug 26 vs Frosinone 0-3
24 Aug 26 @ Roma 0-4
NAP Napoli DWLLW
20 Sept 26 @ Fiorentina 1-1
13 Sept 26 vs Bologna 1-0
5 Sept 26 @ Inter 2-3
30 Aug 26 vs Como 1907 1-2
22 Aug 26 @ Genoa 2-0
Head-to-head: Fiorentina v Napoli
Full H2H history → D 20 Sept 26
Fiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
L 31 Jan 26
Napoli 2-1 FiorentinaSerie A
L 13 Sept 25
Fiorentina 1-3 NapoliSerie A
W/D/L shown from Fiorentina's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Fiorentina vs Napoli: pre-match preview
Serie A action brings Fiorentina up against Napoli, and the odds market leans clearly toward the visitors. Napoli are priced at 2.27, which implies a win probability of roughly 44%, the shortest price on offer among the three outcomes. Fiorentina sit at 3.46 (about 29% implied), with the draw close behind at 3.5 (roughly 28.5% implied) - a tight gap between second and third favourite that points to a competitive match on paper even with Napoli favoured. Our model's recommended selection is Napoli to win at 2.27, with a stated market-implied confidence of 46% and a value edge of 5.29% over the raw market price. That edge suggests the model sees slightly more merit in Napoli's chances than the price alone reflects, though no outcome in football carries certainty, and the draw and Fiorentina prices remain live alternatives for anyone weighing the match differently.
Verdict: Napoli at 2.27 is the model's pick, backed by a modest 5.29% value edge and 46% implied confidence, so this reads as a lean toward the favourite rather than a high-conviction call. With the draw and Fiorentina priced closely together, the match looks competitive on paper, and any stake should reflect that uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Fiorentina vs Napoli?+
Our tip was Napoli to win at odds of 2.27.
Who are the favourites in the Fiorentina vs Napoli odds?+
Napoli are favourites at 2.27, which implies about a 44% chance of winning, the shortest price of the three match-result outcomes listed.
What is the draw priced at for this fixture?+
The draw is priced at 3.5, implying roughly a 28.5% chance, sitting just behind Fiorentina's implied probability of about 29%.
Is there a value bet identified for this match?+
Yes, the model flags Napoli to win at 2.27 as the recommended bet, citing a 5.29% value edge and 46% implied confidence; no other selection cleared the site's value threshold.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).