Swiss Super League ยท Sun ยท 14:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
St Gallen are strong favourites at 1.65, implying about a 61% win probability, while Thun at 4.73 sit near 21%.
The draw is priced at 4.75 with Coolbet, roughly a 21% implied chance, underlining that a stalemate is seen as a minority outcome.
Our value screen flags Thun (fair prob 24%, edge 11.92%) and the Draw (fair prob 23%, edge 11.51%) as prices where the model sees an overlay versus the market.
The recommended Over 3.75 goals pick at 2.01 carries roughly 48% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.21%, so treat it as a modest lean.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun to win | 4.83 | +10.8% | 23% | 62 |
| Draw (X) | 4.50 | +4.9% | 23% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท FSG | X | 2 ยท FT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.67 | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.32 | 4.83 |
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.25 | 4.58 |
| Tipico | 1.60 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.61 | 4.25 | 4.65 |
| GTbets | 1.65 | 4.22 | 4.36 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
FC St Gallen host FC Thun in the Swiss Super League, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At a best price of 1.65, St Gallen are priced as clear home favourites, implying a win probability of roughly 61% before any margin adjustment. Thun, by contrast, sit out at 4.73, which corresponds to around a 21% chance, while the draw is available at 4.75 with Coolbet, implying near 21% as well. In short, the bookmakers see a probable but far from certain home win. Our model steers away from the match result and instead looks at the goals market, recommending Over 3.75 goals at 2.01 with Pinnacle. That price reflects an even split, with market-implied confidence around 48%. It is worth noting the value edge on this pick is negative at -4.21%, so it is a lean rather than a standout number in this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 3.75 goals at 2.01, essentially a coin-flip priced bet with around 48% implied confidence. With a negative value edge of -4.21%, this is a lower-conviction lean rather than a strong number, so stake accordingly and keep bankroll management in mind.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 16:00 | Servette v FC Luzern | 1.95 | 4.20 | 3.70 |
| 29 Aug 16:00 | FC Lausanne-Sport v FC Zurich | 1.87 | 3.85 | 4.37 |
| 29 Aug 18:30 | BSC Young Boys v FC Basel | 1.69 | 4.75 | 4.79 |
| 30 Aug 12:00 | FC Sion v FC Lugano | 2.22 | 3.60 | 3.35 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | FC Vaduz v Grasshopper Zรผrich | 2.09 | 4.00 | 3.24 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.75 goals at odds of 2.01, with a 48% confidence rating.
FC St Gallen are the clear favourites at a best price of 1.65, which implies roughly a 61% win probability. FC Thun are the outsiders at 4.73, around 21%.
The draw is available at 4.75 with Coolbet, implying about a 21% chance. That makes a stalemate one of the less likely outcomes according to the market.
Our model flags value on FC Thun (best price 4.73, edge 11.92%) and the Draw (best price 4.75, edge 11.51%) versus market consensus. The recommended Over 3.75 goals pick at 2.01, however, shows a negative edge of -4.21%, so it is a lean rather than a value spot.
FC St Gallen vs FC Thun takes place Sun ยท 14:30 in the Swiss Super League.
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