Swiss Super League · Sun · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
FC St Gallen are the market favourites at 2.08, implying about 48% win probability, against Luzern's 3.51 (roughly 28%).
The draw is priced at 3.85, around 26% implied, keeping a stalemate realistically in play.
Our model flags FC Luzern at 3.51 as holding a small value edge of 3.54% versus a fair probability of 30%.
The recommended Under 3.25 goals at 1.97 carries a negative edge of -4.07%, so it is a profile-based lean rather than a priced-in advantage.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Luzern to win | 3.57 | +4.8% | 29% | 59 |
| Draw (X) | 3.97 | +3.8% | 26% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Luzern | 3.57 | Pinnacle | 28.0% |
| FC St Gallen | 2.08 | Coolbet | 48.1% |
| Draw | 3.97 | GTbets | 25.2% |
This Swiss Super League fixture sees FC St Gallen host FC Luzern, and the market leans clearly towards the home side. St Gallen are priced at 2.08 with Coolbet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 48%, marking them as favourites. Luzern sit out at 3.51 with Pinnacle, implying around 28%, while the draw is quoted at 3.85, close to 26%. The gap between the two sides is meaningful without being decisive, so an away win or stalemate is far from off the table. Rather than backing an outright result, our model turns to the goals market. The recommended selection is Under 3.25 goals at 1.97 with Pinnacle, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 49%. It is worth noting this pick shows a negative value edge of -4.07%, so it is a lean based on expected game profile rather than a clear pricing advantage.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Under 3.25 goals at 1.97, reflecting a near coin-flip confidence of about 49%. Be aware it shows a negative value edge, so this is a modest lean rather than a strong price. Stake responsibly and treat it accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 16:00 | FC Lausanne-Sport v BSC Young Boys | 3.00 | 4.23 | 2.25 |
| 8 Aug 18:30 | Servette v Grasshopper Zürich | 1.60 | 4.34 | 5.50 |
| 9 Aug 12:00 | FC Lugano v FC Zurich | 1.53 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | FC Basel v FC Thun | 1.94 | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | FC Sion v FC Vaduz | 1.51 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 48% confidence rating.
FC St Gallen are the favourites at 2.08 with Coolbet, an implied probability of roughly 48%. FC Luzern are the underdogs at 3.51.
The draw is priced at 3.85 with Coolbet, which implies about a 26% chance of the game ending level.
Our model identifies FC Luzern at 3.51 as offering a small value edge of 3.54% against a fair probability of 30%. The recommended Under 3.25 goals pick, however, shows a negative edge of -4.07%.
FC St Gallen vs FC Luzern takes place Sun · 14:30 in the Swiss Super League.
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