Primeira Liga · Today · 19:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Benfica are favourites at 2.63 (about 38% implied probability), only marginally ahead of Porto at 2.74 (about 36.5%), pointing to a closely matched fixture by market pricing.
The draw is priced at 3.6, implying roughly 28% probability, which keeps all three match outcomes within a fairly narrow band.
No side-market value picks reached the site's threshold versus market consensus for this fixture.
The recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 2.03, with a model confidence of 51% and a calculated value edge of 3.49% over the market's implied price for that line.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.86 |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | 8.62 |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | 10.81 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 11.86 |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 12.53 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.38 and 1.10. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from FC Porto's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FP | X | 2 · BEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
| Matchbook | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.99 | 3.32 | 2.51 |
| Coolbet | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.56 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.52 |
| GTbets | 2.84 | 3.38 | 2.41 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Porto host Benfica in a Primeira Liga fixture where the match-result market is unusually tight. Benfica head in as narrow favourites at odds of 2.63 with GTbets, which implies a win probability of roughly 38%. Porto are priced close behind at 2.74 with Pinnacle, translating to about 36.5%, while the draw at 3.6 with Coolbet suggests a near 28% chance of a stalemate. With no side priced short enough to be considered a strong favourite, the outright result looks close to a genuine three-way contest according to the market. Rather than picking a side in the win-draw-win market, our model highlights a different angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.03 with Coolbet, carrying a modelled confidence of 51% and a value edge of 3.49% against the market's own pricing of that line.
Verdict: The tightly bunched match-result odds suggest no clear favourite in this Porto-Benfica derby, so the more defined edge lies in the goals market. Under 2.5 at 2.03 carries a modest 3.49% value edge and just over half implied confidence, making it a reasonable but far from certain selection. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:00 | Santa Clara v Braga | 34.00 | 1.38 | 30.00 |
| 20 Sept 17:01 | Estoril v Casa Pia | 100.00 | 7.50 | 4.82 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +13 | 18 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Acad. Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | CD Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.99, with a 50% confidence rating.
Benfica are marginal favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.63 (about 38% implied probability) compared to Porto's 2.74 (about 36.5%). The gap is small, so the market does not treat either side as a strong favourite.
The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of roughly 28% for the match ending level.
The model did not flag any match-result selections above its value threshold, but it identifies Under 2.5 goals at 2.03 as a value bet, with a 51% confidence level and a 3.49% edge over the market's implied pricing for that line.
FC Porto vs Benfica takes place Today · 19:30 in the Primeira Liga.
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