MLS · Wed · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
FC Cincinnati are the favourites at 2.18, implying about a 46% chance, ahead of New York City FC at 3.01 (around 33%).
The draw is the least likely outcome by the odds, priced at 4.36 for roughly a 23% implied probability.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet sits at 2.13 with about 46% implied confidence, but carries a small negative value edge of around -3%, so it is a lean rather than a priced-in advantage.
Our model flags the draw as the notable value spot, with a fair probability near 26% against a market price of 4.36, giving a positive edge of about 13.55%.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.36 | +12.9% | 26% | 65 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 2.18 | Nordic Bet | 45.9% |
| New York City FC | 3.04 | MyBookie.ag | 32.9% |
| Draw | 4.36 | 1xBet | 22.9% |
FC Cincinnati host New York City FC in this MLS clash, and the market leans towards the home side. Cincinnati are priced around 2.18, implying roughly a 46% chance of taking the three points, while New York City FC sit at 3.01, or about a 33% implied probability. The draw is the outsider of the three outcomes at 4.36, translating to around 23% in the market's eyes. That spread suggests a contest the bookmakers see as tilted toward Cincinnati without ruling out an away result. Our model's headline recommendation is Over 3.5 goals at 2.13, reflecting a lean towards an open, higher-scoring game, though at a market-implied confidence of about 46% and a slightly negative value edge, it is a preference rather than a standout price. There is also a flagged value angle on the draw, discussed below.
Verdict: The model's pick is Over 3.5 goals at 2.13, backing an open game, but with a slightly negative edge it is a modest preference, not a strong value play. The draw at 4.36 offers the clearer positive edge. Treat both as calculated positions and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.13, with a 46% confidence rating.
FC Cincinnati are the favourites at 2.18, implying about a 46% chance. New York City FC are priced at 3.01, roughly a 33% implied probability.
The draw is available at 4.36, which implies around a 23% chance from the market. Our model rates its fair probability closer to 26%, flagging it as a value angle.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals at 2.13 has a small negative edge of about -3%, so it is a lean rather than value. The draw at 4.36 shows the clearer positive edge at roughly 13.55%.
FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC takes place Wed · 23:30 in the MLS.
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