Swiss Super League · Sun · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Basel are the market favourites at 1.94, implying about a 52% chance of the home win.
Thun are outsiders at 3.66 (around 27% implied), leaving a clear gap of roughly 1.72 in the odds between the two sides.
The draw is priced at 4.04, an implied probability near 25%, keeping a stalemate a realistic outcome in the market's view.
Our recommended Under 3.25 goals at 1.98 carries a -4.09% value edge, so the price does not offer positive expected value on our model.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Basel | 1.94 | GTbets | 51.5% |
| FC Thun | 3.70 | Tipico | 27.0% |
| Draw | 4.10 | Tipico | 24.4% |
This Swiss Super League fixture sees FC Basel host FC Thun, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Basel are priced at 1.94, translating to a market-implied probability of roughly 52%, while Thun sit at 3.66, or around 27%. The draw is offered at 4.04, close to a 25% chance in implied terms. Those numbers frame Basel as clear but not overwhelming favourites, with the possibility of a Thun result or a stalemate still meaningfully priced in. Rather than backing the match result, our model steers toward the goals market: Under 3.25 goals at 1.98, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 48%. It is worth noting that this pick shows a negative value edge of -4.09%, meaning the price does not currently beat the market on our numbers. Approach the fixture with that in mind and keep stakes measured.
Verdict: The model leans to Under 3.25 goals at 1.98, with market-implied confidence near 48%. Be aware the value edge is negative at -4.09%, so this is not a price-beating spot. Treat it as a marginal, moderate-risk lean rather than a strong recommendation, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 16:00 | FC Lausanne-Sport v BSC Young Boys | 3.00 | 4.23 | 2.25 |
| 8 Aug 18:30 | Servette v Grasshopper Zürich | 1.60 | 4.34 | 5.50 |
| 9 Aug 12:00 | FC Lugano v FC Zurich | 1.53 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | FC St Gallen v FC Luzern | 2.08 | 3.97 | 3.57 |
| 9 Aug 14:30 | FC Sion v FC Vaduz | 1.51 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 48% confidence rating.
FC Basel are the market favourites at 1.94, which implies roughly a 52% chance of the home win. FC Thun are the outsiders at 3.66, around 27% implied.
The draw is priced at 4.04 with Pinnacle, an implied probability of about 25%. That keeps a stalemate a realistic outcome according to the market.
Our model does not flag positive value here. The recommended Under 3.25 goals at 1.98 shows a negative edge of -4.09%, and no value picks cleared the threshold on the match result.
FC Basel vs FC Thun takes place Sun · 14:30 in the Swiss Super League.
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