Liga Profesional · Mon · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Estudiantes are priced at 1.69, implying roughly a 59 percent chance of victory according to the market.
The draw at 3.48 carries an implied probability of about 29 percent, notably higher than Gimnasia Mendoza's win chance.
Gimnasia Mendoza's 5.75 price implies only around 17 percent, marking them as clear outsiders in this matchup.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.35 shows a negative value edge of -5.16 percent, meaning the model does not view it as a strong value bet despite flagging it as the pick of the match.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.4% | 6.94 |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.68 |
| 0-0 | 11.2% | 8.90 |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | 9.85 |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 10.82 |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | 11.98 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.28 and 0.90. These six scorelines cover 66% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · EST | X | 2 · GM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.49 | 5.66 |
| Betsson | 1.70 | 3.45 | 5.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.70 | 3.45 | 5.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.66 | 3.42 | 5.55 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.56 | 3.35 | 5.20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.54 | 3.25 | 5.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Estudiantes host Gimnasia Mendoza in a Liga Profesional fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best odds of 1.69 on Estudiantes imply a win probability of roughly 59 percent, well clear of the draw at 3.48 (about 29 percent) and Gimnasia Mendoza at 5.75 (around 17 percent). Those numbers point to a home side expected to control proceedings, though the draw price still reflects a meaningful chance of a stalemate. Away from the result market, the recommended angle here is a goals market play: Over 2.5 goals at 2.35, which implies a break-even probability near 43 percent. The model's own confidence sits at 40 percent with a value edge of -5.16 percent, so this is presented as a plausible but not clearly value-positive selection, worth weighing against the short price on the home win.
Verdict: Estudiantes are the clear market favourites, but the highlighted play is Over 2.5 goals at 2.35, carrying 40 percent model confidence and a slightly negative value edge. It is a reasonable consideration rather than a standout opportunity, and stake sizing should reflect that modest, uncertain edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.35, with a 41% confidence rating.
Estudiantes are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.69, which implies close to a 59 percent chance of winning.
The draw is priced at 3.48, implying an approximate 29 percent probability, higher than Gimnasia Mendoza's outright win chance.
The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.35 as its recommended bet, but notes a value edge of -5.16 percent, indicating it is not a clearly favourable price rather than a confirmed value opportunity.
Estudiantes vs Gimnasia Mendoza takes place Mon · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
English