Liga Profesional · Sat · 19:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Estudiantes are the favourites at 2.11 (about 47% implied), with Gimnasia the outsiders at 4.0 (about 25%).
The draw at 3.04 implies roughly 33%, underlining that a stalemate is priced as a realistic outcome.
Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 carries about 59% implied confidence but a negative value edge of 5.12%, so the price is not in the bettor's favour.
Gimnasia at 4.0 stands out on value: our fair probability of 31% points to an edge of around 22% over the market price.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia La Plata to win | 4.03 | +22.9% | 30% | 78 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes | 2.10 | 1xBet | 47.6% |
| Gimnasia La Plata | 4.03 | 1xBet | 24.8% |
| Draw | 3.04 | 1xBet | 32.9% |
This Liga Profesional derby pits Estudiantes against Gimnasia La Plata, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Estudiantes are priced at 2.11 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 47%, while Gimnasia sit as clear outsiders at 4.0, or about 25% in probability terms. The draw is quoted at 3.04, implying close to 33%, a reflection of how tightly contested these La Plata meetings can be on paper. Our model's recommended play is not on the outright result but on Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 59%. It is worth noting that this line shows a negative value edge of about 5.12%, meaning the price offers no clear mathematical advantage over the market. The more interesting number from a value standpoint is Gimnasia at 4.0, where our fair estimate suggests a positive edge.
Verdict: The model's headline pick is Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, a fairly probable but negatively priced market with no real value edge. The standout value instead lies with Gimnasia at 4.0. Neither is risk-free; the derby's tight pricing means outcomes are genuinely uncertain. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Estudiantes | 2.16 | 3.10 | 4.34 |
| 6 Aug 00:15 | CA Tigre BA v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.66 | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| 6 Aug 22:00 | Union Santa Fe v Lanus | 2.40 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| 7 Aug 22:30 | Rosario Central v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 1.55 | 3.90 | 8.60 |
| 8 Aug 00:45 | Independiente Rivadavia v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.56 | 4.02 | 7.80 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.83 | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.62 |
| 8 Aug 20:00 | CA Tigre BA v River Plate | 3.42 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.61, with a 59% confidence rating.
Estudiantes are the market favourites at 2.11, implying about a 47% chance, while Gimnasia La Plata are outsiders at 4.0, around 25%.
The draw is quoted at 3.04 with 1xBet, which corresponds to an implied probability of roughly 33%.
Our model flags Gimnasia La Plata at 4.0 as the value pick, with a fair probability of 31% and an edge of about 22%. The Over 1.5 goals line at 1.61, by contrast, shows a negative edge of around 5%.
Estudiantes vs Gimnasia La Plata takes place Sat · 19:45 in the Liga Profesional.
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