Scottish Premiership · kicked off 19 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Motherwell are market favourites at 2.35, implying about 42.5 percent win probability, the highest of the three outcomes.
Dundee FC's 3.2 price implies roughly 31 percent, keeping them as clear outsiders on paper.
The draw at 3.6 implies about 27.8 percent, making it the least likely single outcome according to the odds.
The model's recommended Motherwell bet carries a 44 percent implied confidence and a 3.11 percent value edge, a modest rather than substantial edge over the market.
W/D/L shown from Dundee FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Dundee FC host Motherwell in a Scottish Premiership fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Motherwell are priced at 2.35 with Unibet (SE), which implies a win probability of roughly 42.5 percent, the shortest odds of the three outcomes. Dundee, at 3.2 with Nordic Bet, carry an implied probability near 31 percent, while the draw at 3.6 with Coolbet sits around 27.8 percent. These figures show a moderately favoured away side rather than a one-sided contest. Our model's recommended selection is Motherwell to win at 2.35, with a stated market-implied confidence of 44 percent and a value edge of 3.11 percent over the raw market price. That edge is modest, meaning the model sees only a slight discrepancy between its own probability estimate and what the odds imply, not a dominant mismatch. As always in the Scottish Premiership, home advantage and matchday variance can narrow such gaps.
Verdict: Motherwell to win at 2.35 is the model's pick, supported by a small 3.11 percent value edge and 44 percent implied confidence. This is a reasonable rather than overwhelming edge, so stake sizing should reflect the genuine uncertainty in a fixture where Dundee and the draw both remain live possibilities.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our tip was Motherwell to win at odds of 2.35.
Motherwell are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.35 which implies about a 42.5 percent chance of winning, compared with Dundee's 3.2 (about 31 percent).
The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, implying a probability of roughly 27.8 percent, making it the least likely outcome of the three according to the market.
The model flags Motherwell at 2.35 as its recommended bet, citing a 3.11 percent value edge and 44 percent implied confidence, though this is a modest edge rather than a strong statistical mismatch.
The tip lost — final score 2-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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