Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Wrexham AFC are favourites at 2.64 (about 37.9% implied), only slightly ahead of Derby County at 3.0 (about 33.3% implied)
The draw is priced at 3.35, implying close to 29.9%, reflecting a tightly matched contest according to the odds
The recommended Over 2.5 Goals bet at 2.05 carries an implied probability of roughly 48.8%, against a model confidence of 46%
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold, so no side is flagged as a market-beating pick this round
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% | 8.73 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.96 |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
| 0-1 | 7.2% | 13.87 |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 14.35 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.59 and 1.31. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Derby County's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DC | X | 2 · WA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.33 | 2.64 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.39 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.67 | 3.31 | 2.62 |
| Betsson | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| 1xBet | 2.73 | 3.18 | 2.54 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.73 | 3.18 | 2.54 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Derby County host Wrexham AFC in a Championship clash where the betting market sees very little separating the two sides. Best prices have Wrexham as narrow favourites at 2.64 with Pinnacle, implying a probability of roughly 37.9%, while Derby are priced at 3.0 with Codere, translating to about 33.3%. The draw sits at 3.35, or close to 29.9% implied, underlining how tightly the bookmakers view this fixture. Rather than leaning on the match-result market, our model points to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with William Hill. That price implies roughly 48.8% probability, against a model confidence of 46%, producing a modest negative value edge of just over 5%. It is a fixture where the outright winner looks genuinely uncertain, and any wagering should be sized with that uncertainty in mind.
Verdict: The model's headline angle is Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05, but its own numbers show a slight negative edge of about 5%, meaning the price is not clearly favourable relative to the model's estimate. It is a plausible, moderate-risk selection rather than a confident value play, and stake sizing should reflect that.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05, with a 46% confidence rating.
Wrexham AFC are the marginal favourites, priced at 2.64 (about 37.9% implied probability), just ahead of Derby County at 3.0 (about 33.3% implied).
The draw is available at 3.35, which implies a probability of roughly 29.9%, close behind both match-result outcomes.
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold this round. The model does flag Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05, though its own figures show a slight negative edge of about 5%, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a clear value bet.
Derby County vs Wrexham AFC takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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