English ⚽ Championship 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
Derby County to win
Odds
3.34
LostResult
1-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
36%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betsson
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Birmingham City are market favourites at 2.4, implying a win probability of roughly 41.7 percent
02
Derby County's 3.34 price implies about 29.9 percent, only marginally ahead of the draw
03
The draw at 3.5 implies close to 28.6 percent, making the outcome market tightly clustered between draw and Derby win
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.02 carries a slight negative value edge of -3.44 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a strong statistical edge despite being the model's pick
Team form
DC Derby County DLLLW
19 Sept 26 @ Burnley 1-1
12 Sept 26 vs Birmingham 1-2
9 Sept 26 vs West Brom 0-1
5 Sept 26 @ West Ham 0-3
1 Sept 26 @ Portsmouth 2-0
BC Birmingham City DWLDD
19 Sept 26 vs Middlesbrough 2-2
12 Sept 26 @ Derby County 2-1
9 Sept 26 @ Norwich 1-2
6 Sept 26 vs Wolverhampton 2-2
1 Sept 26 vs Southampton 1-1
Head-to-head: Derby County v Birmingham City
Full H2H history → L 12 Sept 26
Derby County 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
W 21 Mar 26
Derby County 1-0 BirminghamChampionship
D 26 Dec 25
Birmingham 1-1 Derby CountyChampionship
W/D/L shown from Derby County's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Derby County vs Birmingham City: pre-match preview
Derby County host Birmingham City in a Championship fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors without making them overwhelming favourites. Birmingham City's best price of 2.4 with LeoVegas implies a win probability of roughly 41.7 percent, while Derby County at 3.34 with Betsson sits at about 29.9 percent. The draw, best backed at 3.5 with Coolbet, is priced almost identically to a Derby win at close to 28.6 percent, pointing to a fairly open contest rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the match-result market, the site's model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 with Unibet as its recommended angle, translating to an implied probability near 49.5 percent against a stated model confidence of 48 percent. No value picks versus market consensus cleared the site's threshold for this game, so the goals market is the main talking point heading into kick-off.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 as its lead suggestion, but with a modest negative value edge of -3.44 percent this is not a standout edge, more a close-to-fair-value option. Match-result markets remain competitive between all three outcomes, so bettors should treat this as a moderate-risk proposition and stake accordingly.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Championship fixtures
All Championship tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Championship standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Derby County vs Birmingham City?+
Our tip was Derby County to win at odds of 3.34.
Who are the favourites for Derby County vs Birmingham City?+
Birmingham City are priced as favourites at 2.4 with LeoVegas, which implies a win probability of around 41.7 percent, ahead of Derby County and the draw.
What is the draw priced at in this Championship fixture?+
The best available draw price is 3.5 with Coolbet, implying a probability of roughly 28.6 percent, only slightly behind Derby County's own win chances.
Is there a value bet for Derby County vs Birmingham City?+
No match-result value picks cleared the site's threshold for this fixture. The model does recommend Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, though this carries only a small negative value edge of -3.44 percent rather than a clear statistical advantage.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).