Liga Profesional · Mon · 19:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Deportivo Riestra are priced at 1.96, implying just over a 51 percent chance of victory, the clearest signal in the match-result market.
Central Córdoba's best odds of 4.8 imply only about 21 percent, making them a clear market underdog.
The draw at 3.04 implies roughly 33 percent, keeping the outcome market from being fully one-sided.
The Under 1.5 goals bet at 2.35 carries an 8.02 percent value edge with 46 percent model confidence, the only pick flagged as value in this dataset.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 21.4% | 4.68 |
| 1-0 | 20.3% | 4.93 |
| 0-1 | 12.7% | 7.89 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.31 |
| 2-0 | 9.7% | 10.36 |
| 2-1 | 5.7% | 17.48 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.95 and 0.59. These six scorelines cover 82% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DR | X | 2 · CC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 2.97 | 4.85 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.92 | 2.91 | 4.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.78 | 2.90 | 4.30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.76 | 2.85 | 4.20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.72 | 2.75 | 4.30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.71 | 2.75 | 4.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Liga Profesional action sees Deportivo Riestra host Central Córdoba, with the betting market clearly favouring the home side. Riestra's best price of 1.96 implies a win probability of just over 51 percent, while Central Córdoba's 4.8 suggests a much slimmer chance of around 21 percent. The draw sits at 3.04, implying roughly 33 percent, which keeps the outcome market fairly open despite the home lean. Away from the straight result market, our model flags value in the goals market rather than the match-result odds themselves, recommending Under 1.5 goals at 2.35. That price implies a break-even probability near 42.5 percent, and the model rates the actual likelihood at about 46 percent, producing an edge of just over 8 percent. No side is flagged as value versus market consensus in the win-draw-win market, so the goals line is the standout angle from the data provided.
Verdict: The data points to Under 1.5 goals at 2.35 as the most defensible angle, with a modelled edge over 8 percent against a 42.5 percent break-even mark. It is not a certainty; low-scoring outcomes carry their own volatility, so this should be treated as a measured, moderate-risk selection rather than a strong lean.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.70, with a 56% confidence rating.
Deportivo Riestra are favourites according to the market, priced at 1.96, which implies just over a 51 percent chance of winning, compared to Central Córdoba's 4.8 implying about 21 percent.
The draw is available at 3.04, which implies a probability of roughly 33 percent based on the odds given.
The match-result market shows no picks flagged as value versus consensus, but the model highlights Under 1.5 goals at 2.35 as a value bet, with an implied edge of about 8 percent.
Deportivo Riestra vs Central Córdoba takes place Mon · 19:45 in the Liga Profesional.
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