Liga Profesional · Sat · 17:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Defensa y Justicia are priced as favourites at 2.27, implying close to a 44% chance of winning.
San Lorenzo's 3.46 odds put their implied win probability at roughly 29%, the shortest odds among the three outcomes' underdogs.
The draw at 3.09 carries an implied probability of about 32%, keeping the result market tightly bunched.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.57 carries 60% model confidence but shows a -5.09% value edge, meaning the price is slightly less generous than the model's own probability estimate.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 16.6% | 6.03 |
| 0-0 | 15.8% | 6.32 |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | 7.58 |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | 7.94 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.51 |
| 2-1 | 6.9% | 14.47 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.05 and 0.80. These six scorelines cover 74% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DYJ | X | 2 · SL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.04 | 3.49 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.55 |
| Betsson | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.55 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.24 | 2.98 | 3.42 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.05 | 2.95 | 3.25 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.00 | 2.83 | 3.28 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Liga Profesional action brings Defensa y Justicia together with San Lorenzo, and the betting market leans toward the hosts. Best available odds price Defensa y Justicia at 2.27, which implies roughly a 44% chance of victory, while San Lorenzo's 3.46 price points to about 29%. The draw sits at 3.09, translating to a implied probability near 32%, keeping the outcome market fairly competitive despite the home side's edge. Away from the win-draw-win market, the recommended angle here is a goals-based bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.57, which the model assigns a 60% confidence level. That price implies a slightly higher probability than the model's own estimate, producing a modest negative value edge of -5.09%. No standout value picks emerged elsewhere in the match-result market, so this goals line stands as the primary point of interest for bettors weighing this Liga Profesional fixture.
Verdict: The Over 1.5 goals selection at 1.57 reflects a 60% confidence level from the model, though its -5.09% edge suggests the price does not fully match that assessed probability. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk consideration rather than a clear-cut value opportunity, and bettors should size stakes with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.39, with a 40% confidence rating.
Defensa y Justicia are the market favourites at odds of 2.27, implying an approximate 44% win probability, compared to San Lorenzo's 3.46 (about 29%).
The draw is priced at 3.09, which implies roughly a 32% probability according to the market.
No value picks above the site's threshold were identified in the match-result market. The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.57 has 60% model confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -5.09%, so it is not a clear-cut value play.
Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo takes place Sat · 17:45 in the Liga Profesional.
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