Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Defensa y Justicia are the market favourites at 2.48 (around 40% implied), but only marginally ahead of the alternatives.
Newells Old Boys at 3.25 (about 31%) are priced almost level with the draw at 3.2 (also near 31%), signalling an evenly rated match.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.52 reflects an implied confidence of roughly 62%, pointing to expectations of a contained scoreline.
The value edge on the Under is negative at -5.19%, so the pick sits below the value threshold and offers no clear pricing advantage.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa y Justicia | 2.46 | 1xBet | 40.7% |
| Newells Old Boys | 3.30 | Codere (IT) | 30.3% |
| Draw | 3.20 | Betsson | 31.3% |
The Liga Profesional match between Defensa y Justicia and Newells Old Boys sees the hosts installed as narrow favourites by the market. Defensa y Justicia are priced around 2.48, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 40%, while Newells Old Boys sit at 3.25, or about 31%. The draw is close behind at 3.2, near 31%, underlining just how open the bookmakers consider this contest to be. The gap between the two sides is slim, so this is far from a one-sided line. Our model, rather than backing a match result, leans toward the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 1.52 carries a market-implied confidence of about 62%. It is worth noting the value edge here is slightly negative at -5.19%, so this is a modest, lower-priced angle rather than a standout value opportunity in a tightly priced fixture.
Verdict: The model favours Under 2.5 goals at 1.52, consistent with a tight, low-scoring match at roughly 62% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative, so this is a short-priced, moderate-risk angle rather than a value play. Stake responsibly and keep expectations measured.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Estudiantes | 2.16 | 3.10 | 4.34 |
| 6 Aug 00:15 | CA Tigre BA v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.66 | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| 6 Aug 22:00 | Union Santa Fe v Lanus | 2.40 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| 7 Aug 22:30 | Rosario Central v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 1.55 | 3.90 | 8.60 |
| 8 Aug 00:45 | Independiente Rivadavia v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.56 | 4.02 | 7.80 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.83 | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.62 |
| 8 Aug 20:00 | CA Tigre BA v River Plate | 3.42 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.52, with a 62% confidence rating.
Defensa y Justicia are the favourites at odds of 2.48, an implied probability of about 40%. Newells Old Boys are priced at 3.25, roughly 31%.
The draw is available at 3.2 with Betsson, which implies around a 31% chance. That is almost identical to the pricing on a Newells Old Boys win.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.52 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.19%, so it is a low-priced angle rather than a value bet.
Defensa y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys takes place Sun · 20:45 in the Liga Profesional.
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