Liga Profesional · kicked off 9 Aug 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Defensa y Justicia are the market favourites at 2.48 (around 40% implied), but only marginally ahead of the alternatives.
Newells Old Boys at 3.25 (about 31%) are priced almost level with the draw at 3.2 (also near 31%), signalling an evenly rated match.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.52 reflects an implied confidence of roughly 62%, pointing to expectations of a contained scoreline.
The value edge on the Under is negative at -5.19%, so the pick sits below the value threshold and offers no clear pricing advantage.
W/D/L shown from Defensa y Justicia's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
The Liga Profesional match between Defensa y Justicia and Newells Old Boys sees the hosts installed as narrow favourites by the market. Defensa y Justicia are priced around 2.48, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 40%, while Newells Old Boys sit at 3.25, or about 31%. The draw is close behind at 3.2, near 31%, underlining just how open the bookmakers consider this contest to be. The gap between the two sides is slim, so this is far from a one-sided line. Our model, rather than backing a match result, leans toward the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 1.52 carries a market-implied confidence of about 62%. It is worth noting the value edge here is slightly negative at -5.19%, so this is a modest, lower-priced angle rather than a standout value opportunity in a tightly priced fixture.
Verdict: The model favours Under 2.5 goals at 1.52, consistent with a tight, low-scoring match at roughly 62% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative, so this is a short-priced, moderate-risk angle rather than a value play. Stake responsibly and keep expectations measured.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of +1.35 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Defensa y Justicia to win at odds of 2.35.
Defensa y Justicia are the favourites at odds of 2.48, an implied probability of about 40%. Newells Old Boys are priced at 3.25, roughly 31%.
The draw is available at 3.2 with Betsson, which implies around a 31% chance. That is almost identical to the pricing on a Newells Old Boys win.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.52 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.19%, so it is a low-priced angle rather than a value bet.
The tip won — final score 2-1 (+1.35u at flat stakes).
English