K League 1 · Sun · 05:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Daejeon Citizen's 1.39 price implies about 72 percent win probability, the clearest signal in this match.
Gwangju FC's 7.28 price implies only around 14 percent, reflecting limited market support for an away win.
The draw at 5.03 implies near 20 percent but carries an 11.17 percent edge against the model's 22 percent fair probability, making it the standout value pick here.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.57 implies 63.7 percent, slightly above the model's 60 percent confidence, giving it a modest negative edge of -5.4 percent.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DC | X | 2 · GF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.38 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 5.10 | 7.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 4.95 | 7.28 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.36 | 4.95 | 7.30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.38 | 4.90 | 6.60 |
| Tipico | 1.33 | 4.90 | 7.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Daejeon Citizen host Gwangju FC in a K League 1 fixture where the market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Daejeon's best price of 1.39 with Pinnacle implies a win probability of roughly 72 percent, making them heavy favourites, while Gwangju's 7.28 quote from 1xBet translates to just under 14 percent. The draw sits at 5.03, implying close to 20 percent, and that price also shows up as a value pick against the model's fair estimate. Away from the match-result market, the site's recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 with LeoVegas (SE), a line the model gives 60 percent confidence to, though the calculated edge versus fair value is slightly negative. Taken together, the numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, with any value leaning toward the draw rather than the goals market or an outright away win.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 reflects reasonable model confidence (60 percent) but a slightly negative edge (-5.4 percent), so it isn't a clear value play. The draw's 11.17 percent edge is more notable statistically, though it remains a minority outcome. Either angle warrants modest, disciplined staking rather than confident backing.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 07:30 | Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995 | 1.68 | 4.00 | 4.87 |
| 18 Oct 05:00 | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors v Jeju United FC | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.84 |
| 18 Oct 07:30 | Pohang Steelers v FC Anyang | 2.02 | 3.47 | 3.75 |
| 18 Oct 07:30 | FC Seoul v Sangju Sangmu FC | 1.60 | 4.25 | 5.25 |
| 18 Oct 07:30 | Gangwon FC v Incheon United | 2.25 | 3.15 | 3.51 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57, with a 60% confidence rating.
Daejeon Citizen are strong favourites, priced at 1.39 with Pinnacle, which implies around a 72 percent chance of victory in this K League 1 fixture.
The draw is priced at 5.03 with Pinnacle, implying close to a 20 percent probability. It is flagged as a value selection, with a fair probability estimate of 22 percent and an edge of 11.17 percent over the market price.
Not clearly. The model gives Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 a 60 percent confidence level, but the implied probability from the odds (63.7 percent) is slightly higher, producing a small negative edge of -5.4 percent rather than a confirmed value edge.
Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC takes place Sun · 05:00 in the K League 1.
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