MLS · Wed · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
D.C. United are the market favourite at 2.08 (around 48% implied), well ahead of New England at 3.41 (around 29%).
The draw is priced at 4.01, implying roughly a 25% chance of the spoils being shared.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals pick at 2.15 shows a negative value edge of about -5.69%, suggesting it is fairly to slightly under priced.
The draw is highlighted as the model's value angle, with a fair probability near 27% versus the market and a positive edge of about 9.54%.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.03 | +9.6% | 27% | 63 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.C. United | 2.08 | Nordic Bet | 48.1% |
| New England Revolution | 3.42 | 1xBet | 29.2% |
| Draw | 4.03 | 1xBet | 24.8% |
D.C. United host New England Revolution in this MLS clash, and the market leans towards the home side. At a best price of 2.08, D.C. United are priced as favourites, implying roughly a 48% chance of taking the three points. New England, at 3.41, are given around a 29% chance, while the draw sits at 4.01, or about 25% in implied terms. That spread points to a match the bookmakers see as tilted towards D.C. United without ruling out an away result. Our model's headline pick is Over 3.0 goals at 2.15, carrying a market-implied confidence near 44%. Worth noting, the value edge on that goals line reads negative at around -5.69%, so it looks fairly priced rather than a standout. The more interesting value signal appears on the draw, where the model flags a positive edge against the market consensus.
Verdict: The model's headline call is Over 3.0 goals at 2.15, though its negative edge marks it as fairly priced rather than a clear overlay. The draw at 4.01 carries the stronger value signal. Both remain uncertain outcomes, so size any stake sensibly and treat these as informed leans.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 2.15, with a 44% confidence rating.
D.C. United are the favourites at a best price of 2.08, implying roughly a 48% chance. New England Revolution are priced at 3.41, around 29%.
The draw is available at 4.01, which implies about a 25% chance. Our model rates its fair probability closer to 27%, flagging a positive value edge of around 9.54%.
The Over 3.0 goals pick is priced at 2.15 with a market-implied confidence near 44%, but its value edge is negative at about -5.69%, so it looks fairly priced rather than a strong value play.
D.C. United vs New England Revolution takes place Wed · 23:30 in the MLS.
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