Primeira Liga · Sat · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
CS Maritimo are the marginal favourites at 2.48 (about 40% implied), with Casa Pia at 2.95 (roughly 34%).
The draw is priced at 3.43, near 29% implied probability, reflecting a closely matched fixture.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 sits at about 48% implied confidence but carries a negative edge of -4.59%.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, so caution is warranted.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 2.95 | Tipico | 33.9% |
| CS Maritimo | 2.48 | GTbets | 40.3% |
| Draw | 3.45 | Betfair | 29.0% |
This Primeira Liga meeting sees CS Maritimo host Casa Pia, and the market leans towards the home side. Maritimo are priced at 2.48, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 40%, while Casa Pia at 2.95 sit closer to 34%. The draw is quoted at 3.43, around 29% in implied terms, underlining how tightly the bookmakers rate this contest. There is no runaway favourite here; the gap between the two teams is modest, which points to a fixture the market considers competitive. Our model's attention shifts away from the result to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 with an implied confidence near 48%. It is worth noting that this selection carries a negative value edge of about -4.59%, meaning it does not clear our value threshold. That makes this more of a lean than a strong recommendation for CS Maritimo versus Casa Pia.
Verdict: The model leans to Over 2.5 goals at 1.97, but with a negative value edge of -4.59% this falls short of our threshold and is best treated as a low-conviction lean rather than a strong play. Stake modestly and manage your bankroll sensibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 19:15 | Estoril v Famalicão | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.34 |
| 8 Aug 17:00 | Vitória SC v Arouca | 1.90 | 3.85 | 4.30 |
| 8 Aug 19:30 | CF Estrela v Sporting Lisbon | 14.50 | 6.60 | 1.24 |
| 9 Aug 17:00 | FC Porto v Alverca | 1.21 | 7.80 | 16.50 |
| 9 Aug 19:30 | Benfica v Académico de Viseu | 1.13 | 10.00 | 26.00 |
| 9 Aug 19:30 | Gil Vicente v Rio Ave FC | 2.01 | 3.57 | 4.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:30 | Moreirense FC v Braga | 5.20 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| 10 Aug 19:15 | Santa Clara v Nacional | 1.96 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 33 | 27 | 4 | 2 | +47 | 85 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 32 | 25 | 5 | 2 | +65 | 80 |
| 3 | SL Benfica | 33 | 22 | 11 | 0 | +46 | 77 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | +28 | 56 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | +13 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | +8 | 47 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -9 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | -16 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril Praia | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Vitória SC | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | -18 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | -20 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | CD Nacional | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | -17 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -24 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -26 | 27 |
| 18 | AVS | 33 | 3 | 11 | 19 | -40 | 20 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.97, with a 48% confidence rating.
CS Maritimo are the slight favourites at 2.48, implying about 40%, ahead of Casa Pia at 2.95, around 34%. The margin is narrow, so the market sees this as a close contest.
The draw is priced at 3.43 with GTbets, which equates to an implied probability of roughly 29%.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The highlighted Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 actually shows a negative edge of about -4.59%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
CS Maritimo vs Casa Pia takes place Sat · 14:30 in the Primeira Liga.
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