Premier League · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Crystal Palace are priced as favourites at 2.5, implying roughly a 40 percent win probability against Forest's 3.15 (about 32 percent).
The draw at 3.35 sits close to Forest's implied probability, reflecting a fairly tight three-way market with no outcome heavily dominant.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.76 carries an implied confidence of about 56 percent, suggesting the market leans toward a controlled scoreline.
This pick shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.63 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency but rather a moderately favoured line by the model.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.82 |
| 0-1 | 11.0% | 9.12 |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | 11.75 |
| 0-0 | 8.2% | 12.15 |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | 13.44 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 1.33. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Crystal Palace's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CP | X | 2 · NF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.47 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.76 | 3.35 | 2.80 |
| Coolbet | 2.67 | 3.36 | 2.72 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.67 | 3.38 | 2.68 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Crystal Palace host Nottingham Forest in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best odds have Palace at 2.5, which implies a win probability of roughly 40 percent, while Forest at 3.15 implies about 32 percent, and the draw at 3.35 implies close to 30 percent. That spread points to a fairly competitive match on paper, with no single outcome commanding a dominant share of the market. Away from the result market, the model's featured angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.76, priced at an implied probability near 57 percent. This suggests the market and the model both see a moderate chance of a lower-scoring affair, making it a point of interest for those looking beyond the straightforward win-draw-win options in this Crystal Palace versus Nottingham Forest clash.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.76 reflects a moderate lean toward a lower-scoring match, with implied confidence around 56 percent. The slightly negative value edge means this is not a standout market mispricing, so it should be treated as a measured, not a high-conviction, betting angle.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 15:30 | Liverpool v Manchester City | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10, with a 47% confidence rating.
Crystal Palace are the market favourites at odds of 2.5, implying an approximate 40 percent win probability, ahead of Nottingham Forest at 3.15 (about 32 percent) and the draw at 3.35 (about 30 percent).
The best available draw odds are 3.35, which implies a probability of roughly 30 percent based on the market data provided.
No clear value picks were identified above the site's threshold for this fixture. The featured recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 1.76, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.63 percent rather than a confirmed market edge.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Premier League.
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