Brasileirão · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Cruzeiro are strong favourites at 1.78 (about 56% implied), with Mirassol well behind at 4.95 (roughly 20%).
The draw is priced at 3.6, implying near 28% probability, reflecting a match the market sees as competitive but tilted home.
Our model assigns Mirassol a fair probability of 22% against a 4.95 price, producing a positive value edge of around 10.34%.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals pick at 1.73 shows a negative value edge of about -4.14%, so it is a modest lean, not a priced-in advantage.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.05 |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | 8.05 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
| 0-1 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.47 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Cruzeiro's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.72 | GTbets | 58.1% |
| Mirassol | 5.32 | GTbets | 18.8% |
| Draw | 3.85 | Coolbet | 26.0% |
Cruzeiro host Mirassol in this Brasileirão fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it prefers. A best price of 1.78 on Cruzeiro translates to an implied probability of roughly 56%, marking them as clear favourites on home soil. Mirassol are rated as firm outsiders at 4.95, implying around a 20% chance, while the draw sits at 3.6, or close to 28% in probability terms. The gap between the two teams is wide but not extreme, leaving room for a competitive contest. Our model leans toward the goals market rather than the outright, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 1.73, priced with about 55% implied confidence. Notably, that pick carries a slightly negative value edge, so it is a lean rather than a standout number. The more interesting value flag actually appears on Mirassol, where our fair probability sits above what the price implies.
Verdict: The model's recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.73, backed by roughly 55% confidence but a small negative value edge, making it a low-conviction lean. Bettors chasing value may instead note the flagged edge on Mirassol at 4.95. Stake responsibly, as both carry genuine risk.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Bragantino-SP v Corinthians | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 51% confidence rating.
Cruzeiro are the market favourites at a best price of 1.78, which implies roughly a 56% chance. Mirassol are outsiders at 4.95, around 20% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with 1xBet, equating to an implied probability of about 28%.
Our model flags Mirassol at 4.95 as the value pick, with a fair probability of 22% and an edge of about 10.34%. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.73 actually carries a slightly negative edge, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Brasileirão.
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