Premier League · Mon · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Newcastle United's 2.09 price implies about 48% win probability, comfortably the shortest of the three match-result outcomes
Coventry City's 3.58 price implies roughly 28%, while the draw at 3.88 sits close behind at about 26%, keeping Coventry and the draw fairly tightly bunched
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold, so there are no flagged value picks in the 1x2 market for this fixture
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.68 corresponds to about 59% implied confidence, though its value edge is slightly negative at -1.52%
| Bookmaker | 1 · CC | X | 2 · NU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.50 | 3.70 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.45 | 3.80 | 2.16 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.25 | 3.70 | 2.17 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.25 | 3.70 | 2.17 |
| Coolbet | 3.40 | 3.68 | 2.11 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.12 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Newcastle United head to the Coventry Building Society Arena as clear favourites when Coventry City host them in this Premier League fixture on 12 October. The best available prices, both from 1xBet, have Newcastle at 2.09, Coventry at 3.58 and the draw at 3.88. Converting those into implied probability puts Newcastle at roughly 48%, Coventry at around 28% and the draw close to 26%, a gap that reflects a moderately strong away favourite rather than an overwhelming one. Away from the match-result market, our model's featured angle is in the goals market: Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.68, implying a probability near 59%. It is worth noting this pick carries a small negative value edge of -1.52%, meaning the market price is not obviously generous relative to the model's own estimate, even though the underlying confidence level is reasonably high.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.68 reflects a reasonably high implied confidence of around 59%, but the negative value edge means it is not a standout value opportunity by the model's own measure. It is a plausible, moderate-risk selection rather than a strong edge play, and stake sizing should be managed responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 56% confidence rating.
Newcastle United are priced at 2.09, the shortest odds on the match-result market, which implies roughly a 48% win probability compared with about 28% for Coventry City.
The draw is available at 3.88, implying an approximate 26% probability, putting it close to Coventry City's own win probability.
No match-result selection cleared the value threshold in this dataset. The featured recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.52% by the model's own calculation.
Coventry City vs Newcastle United takes place Mon · 19:00 in the Premier League.
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