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Français ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 Sat · 23:30
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
1.99
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 53%
AI Value edge 4.59% · best price at Pinnacle
Bet at Pinnacle Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Coritiba are strong favourites at 1.56 (about 64% implied), with Chapecoense long outsiders at 6.43 (roughly 16%).
02
The draw is priced at 4.05, implying around a 25% chance and reflecting a clear separation between the two sides.
03
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.98 sits near a coin-flip at about 48% implied confidence.
04
No selection cleared our value threshold, and the goals pick shows a negative edge of -4.09%, meaning the price is marginally short of fair.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 52%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 8.90 |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | 9.68 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.20 |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | 11.10 |
| 3-0 | 8.1% | 12.29 |
| 3-1 | 7.1% | 14.08 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.17 and 0.87. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
COR Coritiba LDLLW
31 Jul 26 vs Cruzeiro 0-1
26 Jul 26 @ Bragantino 0-0
22 Jul 26 vs Palmeiras 1-3
30 May 26 @ Flamengo 0-3
25 May 26 vs Bahia 3-2
CHA Chapecoense DLLLL
25 Jul 26 @ Santos 2-2
23 Jul 26 vs Flamengo 0-4
17 Jul 26 @ Bahia 0-2
31 May 26 @ Palmeiras 0-1
24 May 26 @ Cruzeiro 1-2
Head-to-head: Coritiba v Chapecoense
D 11 Feb 26
Chapecoense 3-3 CoritibaBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Coritiba's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 5.60 | Matchbook | 17.9% |
| Coritiba | 1.66 | 1xBet | 60.2% |
| Draw | 4.00 | Coolbet | 25.0% |
Coritiba vs Chapecoense: match preview
Coritiba host Chapecoense in this Brasileirao clash, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At 1.56, Coritiba are priced as clear home favourites, implying roughly a 64% chance of victory before the bookmaker margin is stripped out. Chapecoense are the outsiders at 6.43, which translates to around a 16% chance, while the draw sits at 4.05, or close to 25% in implied terms. That spread points to a match the market expects Coritiba to control. Our model does not chase the result line here; instead it looks at goals, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.98 with market-implied confidence of about 48%. Notably, that pick carries a negative value edge of -4.09%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than our model considers fair. It is offered as the angle of interest rather than a standout value play for this fixture.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.98, a near even-money market with roughly 48% implied confidence. Be aware it carries a slightly negative value edge, so this is a modest angle rather than a strong-value call. Stake responsibly and treat outcomes as uncertain.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Bragantino-SP v Corinthians | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Chapecoense?+
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.99, with a 53% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Chapecoense?+
Coritiba are the favourites at 1.56, which implies about a 64% chance of victory. Chapecoense are the outsiders at 6.43, around 16% implied.
What is the draw priced at?+
The draw is available at 4.05 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 25% chance of the match ending level.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.98 even shows a negative edge of -4.09%, so it is an angle of interest rather than a clear value bet.
When does the match kick off?+
Coritiba vs Chapecoense takes place Sat · 23:30 in the Brasileirão.