English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
Coritiba to win
Odds
2.90
LostResult
3-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
36%Pre-match conf.
-3.33%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (NL)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Atletico Paranaense are favourites at 2.70 (about 37% implied probability), but the gap to Coritiba's 2.88 (about 35%) is small, pointing to a closely matched contest.
02
The draw is priced at 3.15 (about 32% implied), only marginally behind both teams, reinforcing how tight the market view is on this game.
03
No value picks against market consensus reached the site's threshold in the result market, so no side is being flagged as clearly mispriced.
04
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.40 carries a 41% model confidence against a 41.7% implied probability from the odds, and shows a slightly negative edge of -1.18%, indicating the price is close to fair rather than a strong value opportunity.
Team form
COR Coritiba LDLWW
19 Sept 26 @ Vasco da Gama 0-5
12 Sept 26 vs Paranaense 3-3
6 Sept 26 vs Mirassol 1-2
31 Aug 26 @ Clube do Remo 3-2
23 Aug 26 vs Corinthians 2-1
AP Atletico Paranaense DLDWD
12 Sept 26 @ Coritiba 3-3
6 Sept 26 @ Cruzeiro 1-3
30 Aug 26 vs Fluminense 3-3
24 Aug 26 @ Botafogo 3-2
15 Aug 26 vs Bragantino 1-1
Head-to-head: Coritiba v Atletico Paranaense
Full H2H history → D 12 Sept 26
Coritiba 3-3 ParanaenseBrasileirão
L 22 Mar 26
Paranaense 2-0 CoritibaBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Coritiba's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense: pre-match preview
Coritiba host Atletico Paranaense in a Brasileirão fixture where the odds board points to a tight three-way market. Atletico Paranaense are priced as narrow favourites at 2.70, which implies a win probability of roughly 37%. Coritiba sit close behind at 2.88 (about 35% implied), while the draw at 3.15 (near 32%) is very much live given how bunched these prices are. With no clear edge appearing in the standard match-result market, our model turns its attention to the goals market instead, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.40 as the recommended angle. That price implies roughly 42% probability, closely matching the model's own 41% confidence read, so this looks more like a fair-value line than a mispriced one. Bettors weighing this fixture should treat the result market as genuinely competitive rather than one-sided.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.40 aligns closely with the model's own probability estimate, but the -1.18% edge means it is not a clear-cut value bet, just a reasonably fair-priced option. Treat it as a moderate-risk selection rather than a standout opportunity, and size any stake with normal bankroll discipline.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 12 Sept 26
Over 2.5 goalsfinal score 3-3
2.34 +1.34u Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?+
Our tip was Coritiba to win at odds of 2.90.
Who is favourite in the Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense match?+
Atletico Paranaense are the marginal favourites at odds of 2.70, implying a win probability of roughly 37%, just ahead of Coritiba's 2.88 (about 35%).
What is the draw priced at for this Brasileirão fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.15, which implies a probability of around 32%, making it a realistic outcome given how close the three prices are.
Is there a value bet for Coritiba vs Atletico Paranaense?+
No result-market selection cleared the site's value threshold. The closest thing to a recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 2.40, though its -1.18% edge suggests it is close to fair value rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 3-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).