Brasileirão · Today · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Corinthians are priced at 2.38 (about 42% implied probability), making them modest favourites over Fluminense at 3.25 (about 30.8%).
The draw at 3.21 (about 31.2%) sits close to Fluminense's price, indicating the market rates a stalemate almost as likely as an away win.
Combined implied probabilities total around 104%, reflecting standard bookmaker overround rather than a clear-cut favourite.
The model's only flagged angle, Over 2.5 Goals at 2.47, shows a negative value edge of roughly -4.01% and just 39% confidence, so it is not a strong statistical pick.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.51 |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | 7.97 |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | 8.87 |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 9.42 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.72 |
| 2-0 | 7.4% | 13.50 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.18 and 1.06. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense to win | 3.95 | +3.9% | 26% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Corinthians's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · COR | X | 2 · FLU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 2.28 | 3.20 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.13 | 3.77 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.18 | 3.22 | 3.77 |
| BetAnything | 2.18 | 3.22 | 3.77 |
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.14 | 3.47 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Corinthians host Fluminense in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Corinthians' best price of 2.38 implies a win probability of roughly 42%, comfortably ahead of Fluminense's 3.25 (about 30.8%) and the draw at 3.21 (about 31.2%). That spread suggests bookmakers see this as a competitive match rather than a one-sided affair, with the draw priced almost identically to a Fluminense win. Away from the result market, the site's model points to Over 2.5 Goals at 2.47 as its recommended angle, though it carries only a 39% implied confidence and a negative value edge of about -4.01%, meaning the odds do not currently offer a statistical advantage over the model's own estimate. No other selections cleared the value threshold for this fixture, so bettors should treat the goals market as a talking point rather than a strong signal.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 Goals bet at 2.47 is the only angle the model highlights, but its negative edge and modest 39% confidence mean it should be viewed as speculative rather than a confident selection. With no value picks clearing the threshold elsewhere, bettors may prefer to treat this fixture cautiously and manage stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
| 7 Oct 23:30 | Botafogo v Vasco da Gama | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.63, with a 38% confidence rating.
Corinthians are the market favourites at 2.38, which implies roughly a 42% chance of victory, ahead of Fluminense's 30.8% implied probability at 3.25.
The best available draw price is 3.21, implying about a 31.2% probability, which is very close to Fluminense's implied win chance.
According to the data, no selections cleared the site's value threshold; the recommended Over 2.5 Goals bet at 2.47 actually shows a negative edge of about -4.01%, so it should be approached with caution rather than as a clear value play.
Corinthians vs Fluminense takes place Today · 19:00 in the Brasileirão.
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