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Français ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 Sun · 22:30
Our tip
Over 2.0 goals
Odds
1.68
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 48%
AI Value edge 7.73% · best price at Coolbet
Bet at Coolbet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Corinthians are the favourites at 2.37, implying about a 42% win chance, ahead of Cruzeiro at 3.21 (roughly 31%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.3, around 30% implied, underlining a closely matched market with no clear standout result.
03
Our model's Over 2.0 goals bet at 1.68 shows a 7.73% value edge, the only spot flagged above threshold.
04
No outright match-result selection cleared the value threshold, so the goals line is the preferred angle.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 43%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.0% | 7.12 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.52 |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | 8.47 |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | 8.94 |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | 11.98 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.19 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
COR Corinthians DDWWW
30 Jul 26 vs Paranaense 0-0
26 Jul 26 @ Bahia 1-1
23 Jul 26 vs Clube do Remo 3-0
30 May 26 @ Grêmio 3-1
24 May 26 vs Mineiro 1-0
CRU Cruzeiro WLWDW
31 Jul 26 @ Coritiba 1-0
26 Jul 26 vs Botafogo 0-1
23 Jul 26 @ Internacional 2-1
31 May 26 vs Fluminense 1-1
24 May 26 vs Chapecoense 2-1
Head-to-head: Corinthians v Cruzeiro
Full H2H history → D 25 Feb 26
Cruzeiro 1-1 CorinthiansBrasileirão
L 23 Nov 25
Cruzeiro 3-0 CorinthiansBrasileirão
D 23 Jul 25
Corinthians 0-0 CruzeiroBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Corinthians's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 2.37 | 1xBet | 42.2% |
| Cruzeiro | 3.21 | 1xBet | 31.2% |
| Draw | 3.30 | Coolbet | 30.3% |
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro: match preview
Corinthians host Cruzeiro in the Brasileirao, and the market leans towards the home side without treating them as heavy favourites. Corinthians are priced at 2.37, which implies roughly a 42% chance of the win, while Cruzeiro at 3.21 translate to about 31%. The draw sits at 3.3, or close to 30% in implied terms, so the market sees this as a competitive fixture with no dominant pick. Rather than backing a side outright, our model looks to the goals market. The recommended bet is Over 2.0 goals at 1.68 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 48% and a value edge of 7.73% against the price. That edge is where the model sees the main opportunity here, favouring an open game over a tight, low-scoring outcome between these two Brasileirao teams.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.0 goals at 1.68, backed by a 7.73% value edge and roughly 48% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk lean on an open contest rather than a certainty. As with any bet, stake responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?+
Our tip is Over 2.0 goals at odds of 1.68, with a 48% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?+
Corinthians are the market favourite at 2.37, implying about a 42% win chance, compared with Cruzeiro at 3.21 (around 31%).
What are the odds for a draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.3 with Coolbet, which works out to roughly a 30% implied probability.
Is there any value bet in this match?+
Our model flags Over 2.0 goals at 1.68 as the value pick, with a 7.73% edge and about 48% implied confidence. No match-result selection cleared the value threshold.
When does the match kick off?+
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro takes place Sun · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.