MLS · Wed · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Columbus Crew SC are strong favourites at 1.62 (about 62% implied), with CF Montreal well behind at 5.27 (around 19%).
The draw is priced at 4.83, roughly a 21% implied chance, and our model flags it as value with a fair probability of 25% and an 18.39% edge.
CF Montreal at 5.27 also screens as value, with a fair probability of 22% against an implied price nearer 19%, an edge of 15.83%.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.8 sits at about 52% confidence but carries a negative value edge of -5.71%, making it a goals-based lean rather than a price advantage.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.83 | +17.5% | 24% | 68 |
| CF Montreal to win | 5.27 | +14.4% | 22% | 63 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 5.27 | 1xBet | 19.0% |
| Columbus Crew SC | 1.62 | Betsson | 61.7% |
| Draw | 4.83 | 1xBet | 20.7% |
This MLS meeting between Columbus Crew SC and CF Montreal has a clear favourite in the eyes of the market. Columbus are priced at 1.62 with Betsson, which implies a win probability of roughly 62% before any margin adjustment. CF Montreal are firm outsiders at 5.27 (1xBet), translating to around 19% in raw terms, while the draw sits at 4.83, or close to 21%. In short, bookmakers see Columbus as the side to beat at home. Our model, however, looks past the match result and toward goals: the recommended angle is Over 3.0 goals at 1.8 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 52%. It is worth flagging that this specific price shows a negative value edge of -5.71%, so it is a lean based on expected goal volume rather than a standout price. The interesting value signals sit elsewhere, on the draw and the away side.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Over 3.0 goals at 1.8, backed by a 52% model confidence in a high-scoring game. Be aware this price shows a negative value edge, so it is a moderate-risk lean rather than a value play. Stake responsibly and keep it within your normal bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 52% confidence rating.
Columbus Crew SC are the favourites at 1.62 with Betsson, implying around a 62% chance. CF Montreal are outsiders at 5.27.
The draw is available at 4.83 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 21%. Our model rates its fair probability closer to 25%, flagging a positive edge of 18.39%.
The model identifies value on the draw (edge 18.39%) and on CF Montreal at 5.27 (edge 15.83%). The recommended Over 3.0 goals pick, by contrast, shows a negative edge of -5.71%.
Columbus Crew SC vs CF Montreal takes place Wed · 23:30 in the MLS.
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