MLS · Sun · 01:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Colorado Rapids at 1.42 imply about 70% win probability, making them heavy favourites over Sporting Kansas City.
Sporting Kansas City at 7.75 carry an implied probability near 13%, reflecting their underdog status in the market.
The draw is priced at 5.5 (roughly 18% implied), and the model rates its fair probability at 19%, producing a positive edge of about 6.76%.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.81 has an implied confidence around 54% but a slightly negative value edge of -3.0%.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.71 | +5.5% | 18% | 56 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 1.41 | Nordic Bet | 70.9% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 7.75 | Coolbet | 12.9% |
| Draw | 5.71 | 1xBet | 17.5% |
Colorado Rapids host Sporting Kansas City in this MLS clash, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. The Rapids are priced at 1.42, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 70%, marking them as clear home favourites. Sporting Kansas City are long shots at 7.75, implying only around 13%, while the draw sits at 5.5, or close to 18% in probability terms. That is a wide gulf, and the pricing reflects strong confidence in a home win. Our model, however, steers toward the total rather than the result, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.81 with market-implied confidence around 54%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is slightly negative at -3.0%, so it is a lean rather than a standout number. The most notable value flag actually falls on the draw, where the model sees a small positive edge.
Verdict: The model leans to Under 3.5 goals at 1.81, a moderate-confidence total supported by roughly 54% implied probability. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative at -3.0%, so it is a modest lean rather than a strong number. Stake responsibly and within your limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 54% confidence rating.
Colorado Rapids are clear favourites at 1.42, implying about a 70% chance. Sporting Kansas City are outsiders at 7.75, around 13% implied.
The draw is available at 5.5, which implies roughly 18%. Our model puts its fair probability at 19%, giving a small positive edge of about 6.76%.
The draw shows a modest positive edge of about 6.76% versus the market. The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.81 has a slightly negative edge of -3.0%, so it is a lean rather than strong value.
Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City takes place Sun · 01:30 in the MLS.
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