MLS · Sun · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Chicago Fire are firm favourites at 1.69, implying about a 59% chance, versus Portland Timbers at 4.67, roughly 21%.
The draw is priced at 4.5, around 22% implied, so the market treats a stalemate and a Portland win as similarly unlikely.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals sits at 1.95 with market-implied confidence near 50%, effectively a coin-flip price on the total.
No value picks cleared the threshold, and the goals angle itself shows a -2.75% edge, meaning it is a preference rather than a value bet.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.00 | +5.0% | 21% | 56 |
| Portland Timbers to win | 4.90 | +3.2% | 21% | 55 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 1.65 | Nordic Bet | 60.6% |
| Portland Timbers | 4.90 | LeoVegas (SE) | 20.4% |
| Draw | 5.00 | 1xBet | 20.0% |
This MLS meeting sees Chicago Fire host Portland Timbers, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Chicago are priced at 1.69, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 59%, while Portland sit well out at 4.67, or about 21%. The draw is quoted at 4.5, near 22% in implied terms, underlining that the bookmakers expect the hosts to dictate. Those prices frame a clear home favourite rather than a coin-flip fixture. Our model, however, steers away from the match-result line and toward goals: the recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 1.95, a near even-money price carrying market-implied confidence of about 50%. It is worth noting the value edge here is slightly negative at -2.75%, so this is a preference call on the total rather than a flagged value spot. Read the sections below for how the numbers stack up before deciding on Chicago Fire versus Portland Timbers.
Verdict: The pick is Over 3.5 goals at 1.95, essentially an even-money bet on a high-scoring game. With a slightly negative value edge and around 50% implied confidence, treat this as a moderate-risk, preference-based play rather than a standout spot. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 50% confidence rating.
Chicago Fire are the market favourites at 1.69, an implied probability of about 59%. Portland Timbers are the outsiders at 4.67, roughly 21%.
The draw is priced at 4.5 with Coolbet, which implies around a 22% chance. That is close to Portland's own win probability in the market.
No selections cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 3.5 goals at 1.95 actually carries a -2.75% edge, so it is a preference on the total rather than a flagged value bet.
Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers takes place Sun · 22:00 in the MLS.
English 
Español 
Português 
Deutsch 
Français