Premier League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Chelsea are priced at 1.88, implying roughly a 53 percent chance of victory according to the market.
Bournemouth's 4.17 price and the draw's 4.11 price sit within a percentage point of each other, both hovering around 24 percent implied probability.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.34 carries an implied probability of about 43 percent, with a modest calculated value edge of 0.12 percent.
No match-result value picks cleared the threshold versus market consensus, meaning the win/draw/win market offers no standout edge according to the model.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.4% | 9.61 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.31 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.84 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.37 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.11 |
| 0-1 | 6.1% | 16.31 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.70 and 1.50. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Chelsea's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CHE | X | 2 · BOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 4.16 | 4.11 |
| Betfair | 1.86 | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.83 | 4.15 | 3.95 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.82 | 4.20 | 3.95 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.82 | 4.20 | 3.95 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.82 | 4.20 | 3.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Chelsea host Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best available odds price Chelsea at 1.88, which implies a win probability of roughly 53 percent, making them clear favourites on paper. Bournemouth, at 4.17, are seen as outsiders with an implied chance of around 24 percent, while the draw at 4.11 sits at a near-identical implied probability of about 24 percent, showing the market views a stalemate as almost as likely as a Bournemouth win. Rather than focusing purely on the match result market, our model's standout recommendation centres on goal supply: Over 3.5 goals is priced at 2.34, translating to an implied probability near 43 percent and carrying a small modelled value edge of 0.12 percent. This suggests the firepower and openness expected from both sides could be the more interesting angle than the head-to-head outcome alone.
Verdict: The data points to Chelsea as clear favourites, but the model's only recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.34, reflecting a near-even coin-flip proposition around 43 percent implied probability. The edge is thin (0.12 percent), so this should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-confidence pick.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
| 11 Oct 15:30 | Liverpool v Manchester City | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 55% confidence rating.
Chelsea are the clear favourites, priced at 1.88, which implies roughly a 53 percent chance of winning according to the market.
The draw is available at 4.11, implying an approximate 24 percent probability, almost identical to Bournemouth's implied win chance.
The model found no match-result value picks above its threshold, but it does flag Over 3.5 goals at 2.34 as carrying a small edge of 0.12 percent against market consensus.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Premier League.
English 
