Championship · kicked off 15 Aug 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
The match-result odds are extremely close, with Charlton at 2.76 (about 36%) and Derby at 2.88 (about 35%), so the market barely favours the hosts.
The draw at 3.45 implies roughly a 29% chance, consistent with expectations of a competitive, evenly-poised contest.
Our model's Under 2.5 goals pick carries a 53% implied confidence, pointing toward a potentially low-scoring game.
The value edge on that Under selection is negative at -3.87%, meaning the 1.81 price offers no clear pricing advantage over the market.
W/D/L shown from Charlton Athletic's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
This Championship clash at The Valley sees Charlton Athletic host Derby County in a match the bookmakers view as almost a coin toss. The home side sits as the marginal favourite at 2.76, implying around a 36% chance of victory, while Derby County are barely behind at 2.88, worth roughly 35%. That razor-thin gap tells you the market sees little to separate these two. The draw is priced at 3.45, or about 29% in probability terms, which is a fairly typical figure for a tightly matched Championship fixture. Rather than backing a side outright, our model leans toward the goals market, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 with a market-implied confidence near 53%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection is slightly negative at -3.87%, so this is more a read on likely game shape than a standout price. Approach it accordingly and stake within your means.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.81, reflecting a 53% read that this evenly-matched fixture stays tight. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative, so it is a game-shape lean rather than a priced-in edge. Treat it as a moderate-risk selection and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip was Derby County to win at odds of 2.88.
Charlton Athletic are the narrow favourites at 2.76, implying about a 36% chance. Derby County are close behind at 2.88, around 35%, so the market sees very little between the sides.
The draw is priced at 3.45 with Betfair, which translates to roughly a 29% implied probability, a fairly standard figure for a closely matched Championship game.
No selection cleared our value threshold. Our model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.81, but its value edge is negative at -3.87%, so it reflects an expected game shape rather than a genuine pricing advantage.
The tip lost — final score 2-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
English 
