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Français ⚽ Championship 🕒 Sat · 14:00
Our tip
Derby County to win
Odds
2.75
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 38%
AI Value edge 5.14% · best price at Coolbet
Bet at Coolbet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
The match-result odds are extremely close, with Charlton at 2.76 (about 36%) and Derby at 2.88 (about 35%), so the market barely favours the hosts.
02
The draw at 3.45 implies roughly a 29% chance, consistent with expectations of a competitive, evenly-poised contest.
03
Our model's Under 2.5 goals pick carries a 53% implied confidence, pointing toward a potentially low-scoring game.
04
The value edge on that Under selection is negative at -3.87%, meaning the 1.81 price offers no clear pricing advantage over the market.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 49%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.76 |
| 0-1 | 12.0% | 8.36 |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.15 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.64 |
| 0-2 | 8.0% | 12.55 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.08 and 1.33. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
CA Charlton Athletic LWLDL
2 May 26 @ Swansea 1-3
25 Apr 26 vs Hull City 2-1
22 Apr 26 vs Ipswich Town 1-2
18 Apr 26 @ Sheffield Wed 1-1
11 Apr 26 vs Preston NE 1-2
DC Derby County LWLWL
2 May 26 vs Sheffield Utd 1-2
25 Apr 26 @ QPR 3-2
21 Apr 26 @ Norwich 1-2
18 Apr 26 vs Oxford United 1-0
11 Apr 26 @ Southampton 1-2
Head-to-head: Charlton Athletic v Derby County
Full H2H history → L 20 Jan 26
Charlton 1-2 Derby CountyChampionship
D 30 Sept 25
Derby County 1-1 CharltonChampionship
W/D/L shown from Charlton Athletic's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Athletic | 2.78 | Betfair | 36.0% |
| Derby County | 2.75 | Coolbet | 36.4% |
| Draw | 3.45 | Betfair | 29.0% |
Charlton Athletic vs Derby County: match preview
This Championship clash at The Valley sees Charlton Athletic host Derby County in a match the bookmakers view as almost a coin toss. The home side sits as the marginal favourite at 2.76, implying around a 36% chance of victory, while Derby County are barely behind at 2.88, worth roughly 35%. That razor-thin gap tells you the market sees little to separate these two. The draw is priced at 3.45, or about 29% in probability terms, which is a fairly typical figure for a tightly matched Championship fixture. Rather than backing a side outright, our model leans toward the goals market, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 with a market-implied confidence near 53%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection is slightly negative at -3.87%, so this is more a read on likely game shape than a standout price. Approach it accordingly and stake within your means.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.81, reflecting a 53% read that this evenly-matched fixture stays tight. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative, so it is a game-shape lean rather than a priced-in edge. Treat it as a moderate-risk selection and stake responsibly.
Upcoming Championship fixtures
All Championship tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 19:00 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers | 1.59 | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| 15 Aug 11:30 | Bolton Wanderers v Preston North End | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Lincoln City | 1.37 | 5.50 | 9.80 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Norwich City v West Bromwich Albion | 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Portsmouth v Queens Park Rangers | 2.31 | 3.55 | 3.40 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Stoke City v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.40 | 3.01 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Bristol City v Millwall | 2.64 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| 15 Aug 16:30 | Sheffield United v Birmingham City | 2.58 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?+
Our tip is Derby County to win at odds of 2.75, with a 38% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Charlton Athletic vs Derby County?+
Charlton Athletic are the narrow favourites at 2.76, implying about a 36% chance. Derby County are close behind at 2.88, around 35%, so the market sees very little between the sides.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.45 with Betfair, which translates to roughly a 29% implied probability, a fairly standard figure for a closely matched Championship game.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
No selection cleared our value threshold. Our model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.81, but its value edge is negative at -3.87%, so it reflects an expected game shape rather than a genuine pricing advantage.
When does the match kick off?+
Charlton Athletic vs Derby County takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.