MLS · Sat · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Charlotte FC are priced at 2.11, implying roughly 47% win probability, the strongest figure across the three match outcomes.
Chicago Fire's 3.27 price implies around 31%, while the draw at 4.05 implies about 25%, keeping the away win and draw fairly close in perceived likelihood.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.14 carries a market-implied probability near 47%, but the model's own confidence of 45% and a negative value edge of -3.13% suggest the price is not clearly favourable.
The overall odds set (2.11 / 4.05 / 3.27) reflects a standard bookmaker margin, with no side offering an obviously mispriced number based on the data given.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.9% | 10.13 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.99 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.81 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 14.86 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 14.99 |
| 2-0 | 6.2% | 16.13 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.84 and 1.47. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Charlotte FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CF | X | 2 · CF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.96 | 2.79 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.99 | 2.73 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.31 | 3.99 | 2.73 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.32 | 3.85 | 2.72 |
| Betsson | 2.32 | 3.85 | 2.72 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Charlotte FC host Chicago Fire in an MLS fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 2.11 on Charlotte imply a win probability of roughly 47%, considerably higher than Chicago Fire's 3.27 price, which points to about 31%. The draw, priced at 4.05, sits at an implied 25%, rounding out a market that gives Charlotte the clearest edge without making them overwhelming favourites. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model instead flags a total-goals angle: Over 3.5 goals at 2.14, reflecting a scenario where the game produces plenty of attacking output regardless of who takes the points. That price implies a bookmaker probability near 47%, though the model's own confidence sits at 45%, meaning the numbers don't fully align in the bettor's favour here.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.14 is presented as the standout angle here, but the numbers show a slight negative edge (-3.13%) against the model's 45% confidence, meaning it should be treated as a moderate-risk, speculative selection rather than a clear-value play. Bankroll discipline is advisable given the mixed signal.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Nashville SC v Toronto FC | 1.50 | 4.88 | 6.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.17, with a 45% confidence rating.
Charlotte FC are the favourites, priced at 2.11, which implies close to a 47% chance of winning according to the market, ahead of Chicago Fire's 31% implied probability at 3.27.
The draw is priced at 4.05 with Nordic Bet, implying an approximate 25% probability, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
It's the model's recommended bet at 2.14, but the value edge is actually negative (-3.13%) and the model's confidence (45%) is slightly below the price's implied probability, so it should be viewed as a moderate-risk pick rather than a strong-value one.
Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire takes place Sat · 23:30 in the MLS.
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