Belgian Pro League · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Charleroi are the market favourites at 1.88, implying about a 53% chance, with Leuven out at 4.6 for roughly 22%.
The draw is priced at 3.62, an implied probability near 28%, suggesting the market sees a competitive but not tight contest.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.80 carries around 55% implied confidence but a marginally negative edge of -1.0%.
Leuven at 4.6 is flagged as the value angle, with a fair probability estimate of 22% and a positive edge of 3.2% versus the market price.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | 1.80 | 1xBet | 55.6% |
| Leuven | 4.60 | Nordic Bet | 21.7% |
| Draw | 3.70 | Tipico | 27.0% |
This Belgian Pro League fixture sees Charleroi host Leuven, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Charleroi are priced at 1.88, which translates to roughly a 53% implied chance of taking the three points, marking them as clear home favourites. Leuven, by contrast, drift out to 4.6, an implied probability of about 22%, while the draw sits at 3.62, or around 28%. The gap between the two sides is meaningful without being extreme, reflecting a match the bookmakers expect Charleroi to shade rather than dominate. Our model, however, steers away from the result market and toward the goals line: the recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.80, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 55%. It is worth noting the value edge here is slightly negative at -1.0%, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.80, a moderate-confidence lean at roughly 55% implied probability. With a slightly negative edge of -1.0%, it is not a standout price, so treat it as a modest play and stake within your normal bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:45 | Club Brugge v KV Kortrijk | 1.27 | 6.70 | 12.50 |
| 8 Aug 16:15 | Standard Liege v Cercle Brugge KSV | 2.44 | 3.46 | 3.00 |
| 8 Aug 18:45 | Sint Truiden v Lommel SK | 1.62 | 4.14 | 5.70 |
| 8 Aug 18:45 | Westerlo v Union Saint-Gilloise | 4.90 | 3.90 | 1.81 |
| 9 Aug 11:30 | Gent v KV Mechelen | 2.02 | 3.69 | 3.80 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | SV Zulte-Waregem v Genk | 3.20 | 3.69 | 2.22 |
| 9 Aug 16:30 | Anderlecht v RAAL La Louvière | 1.78 | 3.81 | 4.90 |
| 9 Aug 17:15 | Royal Antwerp v SK Beveren | 1.75 | 3.75 | 5.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 53% confidence rating.
Charleroi are the favourites at 1.88, implying about a 53% chance of winning. Leuven are the outsiders at 4.6, around 22%.
The draw is priced at 3.62 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 28% probability of the teams sharing the points.
The value angle flagged is Leuven at 4.6, with a fair probability of 22% and a positive edge of 3.2%. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet, by contrast, shows a marginally negative edge of -1.0%.
Charleroi vs Leuven takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Belgian Pro League.
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