Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Montreal are favourites at 2.3 (about 43% implied), ahead of New England at 3.18 (about 31%).
The draw is priced at 3.62, implying roughly a 28% chance and keeping all three outcomes live.
The recommended Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.93 carries a market-implied confidence near 50%.
The value edge on the goals pick is negative (-4.26%), meaning it falls below our threshold for a clear market edge.
Team form
Head-to-head: CF Montreal v New England Revolution
W/D/L shown from CF Montreal's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
CF Montreal vs New England Revolution: pre-match preview
This MLS meeting sees CF Montreal host New England Revolution, and the market leans clearly towards the home side. Montreal's best price of 2.3 translates to an implied probability of roughly 43%, comfortably ahead of New England at 3.18 (about 31%) and the draw at 3.62 (around 28%). Those numbers frame Montreal as moderate favourites rather than a dominant force, with enough uncertainty across all three outcomes to keep the contest open. Our model does not land on the match result but instead looks at goals, flagging Over 2.75 at 1.93 with Pinnacle. That price reflects roughly a 50% market-implied chance of a high-scoring game. It is worth noting the value edge on this selection is negative at -4.26%, so it sits below our usual value threshold. The read here is a balanced fixture where the goals angle is the model's preferred talking point rather than a standout price advantage.
Verdict: The model's pick is Over 2.75 goals at 1.93, essentially a coin-flip priced selection with a slightly negative value edge. Treat it as a modest lean rather than a strong edge, and stake accordingly. Montreal are favourites on the match result, but no outcome is priced with high conviction.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of +0.93 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.93.
CF Montreal are the favourites at a best price of 2.3, implying about a 43% chance. New England Revolution are priced at 3.18, or roughly 31%.
The draw is available at 3.62 with 1xBet, which implies approximately a 28% probability of the teams sharing the points.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The model's goals pick, Over 2.75 at 1.93, actually shows a negative edge of -4.26%, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
The tip won — final score 2-2 (+0.93u at flat stakes).