MLS · Sat · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Montreal at 2.32 are the favourites, with an implied probability near 43% against D.C. United's roughly 33% at 3.06.
The draw is priced at 3.75, implying about 27%, so a stalemate is the least likely of the three outcomes per the market.
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.76 carries a market-implied confidence of around 55%, but its value edge is negative at about -3.02%.
No value picks cleared our threshold here, suggesting the prices broadly align with the model's estimates.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 2.25 | Coolbet | 44.4% |
| D.C. United | 3.20 | LeoVegas (SE) | 31.3% |
| Draw | 3.97 | 1xBet | 25.2% |
CF Montreal host D.C. United in this MLS clash, and the market frames the home side as clear favourites. Montreal are priced at 2.32, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 43%, while D.C. United sit at 3.06, or about 33%. The draw is on offer at 3.75, implying near 27%, so bookmakers see a game that leans towards the hosts without treating the outcome as a foregone conclusion. Rather than backing the match result, our model looks to the goals market: Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.76 with a market-implied confidence around 55%. It is worth noting the value edge on that price is negative at roughly -3%, meaning the odds sit slightly below what the model considers fair value. That makes this more of a lean than a standout play, and there were no value picks clearing our threshold for this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, reflecting a market-implied confidence near 55%. However, the negative value edge of around -3% means the price offers no clear edge, so treat this as a modest-risk lean rather than a strong play and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
| 16 Aug 01:30 | Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City | 1.41 | 5.71 | 7.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.75, with a 55% confidence rating.
CF Montreal are the favourites at 2.32, an implied probability of about 43%. D.C. United are the underdogs at 3.06, roughly 33%.
The draw is available at 3.75 with Coolbet, implying around a 27% chance and making it the least likely of the three match results per the odds.
No value picks cleared our threshold for this fixture. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.76 actually shows a negative edge of about -3%, so there is no clear market value on offer.
CF Montreal vs D.C. United takes place Sat · 23:30 in the MLS.
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