Championship · Mon · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Cardiff City are marginal favourites at 2.48 (about 40% implied), with Wrexham AFC close behind at 2.85 (about 35%), a modest gap of only a few percentage points.
The draw at 3.6 implies roughly 28%, a standard figure that reflects a tightly priced, evenly weighted match.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.08 carries a market-implied confidence near 46% but a negative value edge of -4.96%, so the price offers no advantage.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, signalling a fixture where the odds appear efficient.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff City | 2.45 | LeoVegas (SE) | 40.8% |
| Wrexham AFC | 2.94 | Pinnacle | 34.0% |
| Draw | 3.60 | Betfair | 27.8% |
Cardiff City host Wrexham AFC in this Championship encounter, and the market leans towards the home side without making them a strong favourite. Cardiff's best price of 2.48 translates to an implied probability of roughly 40%, while Wrexham at 2.85 sit at about 35%. That is a fairly narrow gap, suggesting bookmakers see this as a competitive, close-to-balanced fixture rather than a mismatch. The draw is priced at 3.6, or around 28% implied, which is a typical figure for an evenly matched Championship pairing. Our model's attention here is on the goals market rather than the result: it flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.08, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 46%. However, that pick shows a negative value edge of -4.96%, meaning the available price does not offer an edge over the market. Bettors should treat this as a lean at best and stake responsibly.
Verdict: The model points to Under 2.5 goals at 2.08, but with a negative value edge of nearly -5% this is a low-conviction lean rather than a strong recommendation. The result market is close, and no bet clears the value threshold. Approach cautiously and stake within your limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 19:00 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers | 1.59 | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| 15 Aug 11:30 | Bolton Wanderers v Preston North End | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Lincoln City | 1.37 | 5.50 | 9.80 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Norwich City v West Bromwich Albion | 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Portsmouth v Queens Park Rangers | 2.31 | 3.55 | 3.40 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Stoke City v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.40 | 3.01 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Charlton Athletic v Derby County | 2.78 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Bristol City v Millwall | 2.64 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.08, with a 46% confidence rating.
Cardiff City are the narrow favourites at a best price of 2.48, implying about 40%. Wrexham AFC are close behind at 2.85, around 35%, so the gap is small.
The best available draw price is 3.6 with Betfair, which implies roughly a 28% chance and is typical for an evenly matched fixture.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.08 actually shows a negative value edge of -4.96%, so the market appears efficient here.
Cardiff City vs Wrexham AFC takes place Mon · 19:00 in the Championship.
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