Serie A · Sun · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Juventus are priced at 1.53 to win, implying an approximate 65% chance according to the market, making them strong favourites over Cagliari.
Cagliari's 6.85 price implies just under 15% win probability, reflecting the size of the gap between the two sides in the odds.
The draw at 4.58 implies roughly 22% probability, a live but secondary outcome given the favourite's pricing.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 carries an implied probability of about 48%, against a modelled 52% confidence, producing an 8% value edge versus the market price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 14.3% | 6.97 |
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.92 |
| 0-0 | 10.3% | 9.72 |
| 0-2 | 10.0% | 10.00 |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 11.05 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.88 and 1.39. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Cagliari's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CAG | X | 2 · JUV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.23 | 4.22 | 1.62 |
| Unibet (SE) | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.54 |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.54 |
| Betsson | 6.40 | 3.90 | 1.58 |
| Marathon Bet | 6.05 | 4.10 | 1.57 |
| Codere (IT) | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.58 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Juventus travel to Sardinia as clear favourites according to the betting markets for this Serie A clash against Cagliari. The best available price on a Juventus win sits at 1.53, which implies a win probability of roughly 65%, while Cagliari's 6.85 odds point to just under 15% implied probability. The draw, priced at 4.58, carries an implied chance of around 22%, rounding out a market that heavily favours the visitors. Rather than focusing on the match-result market, our model highlights a goals-based angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, which implies a probability near 48% against a modelled confidence of 52%, giving an estimated value edge of 8%. This suggests the market may be slightly underpricing a tighter, lower-scoring affair despite Juventus's strong favourite status in the win market.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, supported by a modest 8% value edge over the implied market probability. This is not a heavily one-sided market signal, so it should be treated as a moderate-confidence selection rather than a strong lean, with normal bankroll discipline advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 50% confidence rating.
Juventus are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.53, which implies roughly a 65% win probability compared to Cagliari's implied 15% at odds of 6.85.
The draw is priced at 4.58 with the best available odds, implying an approximate 22% probability according to the market.
The model does not flag value in the straight match-result market, but it identifies value in the Under 2.5 goals market at 2.07, showing an 8% edge over the implied probability.
Cagliari vs Juventus takes place Sun · 18:45 in the Serie A.
English 
