Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
Osasuna are the clear favourites at 1.76, implying roughly 57%, while Levante at 5.06 sit near 20%.
The draw is priced at 4.03, around 25% implied probability, a realistic outcome given the moderate favourite price.
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 with about 52% confidence, but the value edge is marginally negative at -1.59%.
The flagged value pick is Levante at 5.06, with a fair probability estimate of 21% and a positive edge of 5.94% versus the market.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 53%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.34 |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 9.14 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.66 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.68 |
| 0-1 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
| 0-0 | 7.0% | 14.31 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.56 and 1.09. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante to win | 5.06 | +6.4% | 21% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
Head-to-head: CA Osasuna v Levante
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from CA Osasuna's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna | 1.79 | Betfair | 55.9% |
| Levante | 5.06 | 1xBet | 19.8% |
| Draw | 4.03 | 1xBet | 24.8% |
CA Osasuna vs Levante: match preview
Osasuna host Levante at El Sadar in this La Liga fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about the favoured side. Osasuna are priced at 1.76 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 57%. Levante, by contrast, are outsiders at 5.06, implying around 20%, while the draw sits at 4.03, or about 25% in probability terms. That is a clear gap in expectation, though not an overwhelming one, since the home price still leaves plenty of room for either a stalemate or an away upset. Our model's recommended angle steps away from the match result and looks instead at Over 2.5 goals at 1.91, with market-implied confidence around 52%. It is worth noting the calculated value edge on that goals line is slightly negative at -1.59%, so this is a lean rather than a standout price. The most flagged value spot on the outright market is actually Levante.
Verdict: The featured lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.91, backed by around 52% model confidence but carrying a slightly negative value edge, so treat it as a modest angle rather than a strong price. The Levante outright at 5.06 offers the only positive edge here. Stake responsibly and within your means.
Upcoming La Liga fixtures
All La Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 17:30 | Alavés v Getafe | 2.55 | 2.94 | 3.78 |
| 15 Aug 19:30 | Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano | 2.36 | 3.37 | 3.55 |
| 16 Aug 15:00 | Real Racing Club de Santander v Villarreal | 3.50 | 3.65 | 2.17 |
| 16 Aug 17:00 | Espanyol v Levante | 2.11 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| 16 Aug 19:30 | Celta Vigo v CA Osasuna | 2.12 | 3.55 | 3.90 |
| 17 Aug 19:00 | Deportivo La Coruña v Elche CF | 2.38 | 3.33 | 3.55 |
| 19 Aug 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Málaga | 1.34 | 5.63 | 12.50 |
| 20 Aug 19:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Alavés | 2.14 | 3.29 | 4.42 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primera Division standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | +59 | 94 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | +42 | 86 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | +26 | 72 |
| 4 | Atleti | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 | 69 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | +11 | 60 |
| 6 | Celta | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | +5 | 54 |
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | -6 | 51 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | -3 | 50 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 49 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | -2 | 46 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | -12 | 46 |
| 12 | Athletic | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | -15 | 45 |
| 13 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | -8 | 43 |
| 14 | Alavés | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Sevilla FC | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | -14 | 43 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -6 | 42 |
| 17 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -10 | 42 |
| 18 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -14 | 42 |
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | -16 | 41 |
| 20 | Real Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -34 | 29 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.91, with a 52% confidence rating.
Osasuna are the favourites at 1.76 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 57%. Levante are the outsiders at 5.06, roughly 20%.
The draw is priced at 4.03 with 1xBet, which equates to an implied probability of around 25%.
According to our model, Levante at 5.06 carries a positive value edge of 5.94% against a fair probability of 21%. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.91 has a slightly negative edge of -1.59%, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
CA Osasuna vs Levante takes place Mon · 17:30 in the La Liga.