Championship · Sun · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
West Ham United are the market favourites at 2.43 (about 41% implied), ahead of Burnley at 3.05 (about 33%).
The gap between the two sides is fairly narrow, suggesting the market views this Championship clash as reasonably balanced.
The draw is priced at 3.70, implying roughly a 27% chance of the points being shared.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.73 carries a negative value edge of -5.14%, so the price is slightly shorter than our model rates as fair.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 2.90 | Betfair | 34.5% |
| West Ham United | 2.43 | LeoVegas (SE) | 41.2% |
| Draw | 3.60 | Betfair | 27.8% |
Burnley host West Ham United in this Championship fixture, and the market leans towards the visitors. West Ham are the favourites at 2.43 with LeoVegas (SE), which translates to an implied probability of roughly 41%. Burnley are priced at 3.05 on Betfair, or around 33% in probability terms, while the draw sits at 3.70, implying about 27%. That spread points to a contest the market sees as competitive rather than one-sided, with West Ham holding a modest edge rather than a commanding one. Our model's attention is on the goals market instead of the result: Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.73 with William Hill, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 55%. It is worth flagging up front that this pick shows a negative value edge of -5.14%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than our model considers fair. Read the sections below before deciding how it fits your approach.
Verdict: The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.73, with an implied confidence near 55%. However, the -5.14% value edge means the odds are marginally short of fair value, so this is a lean rather than a strong recommendation. Treat it cautiously and stake within your usual limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 19:00 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers | 1.59 | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| 15 Aug 11:30 | Bolton Wanderers v Preston North End | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Lincoln City | 1.37 | 5.50 | 9.80 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Norwich City v West Bromwich Albion | 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Portsmouth v Queens Park Rangers | 2.31 | 3.55 | 3.40 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Stoke City v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.40 | 3.01 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Charlton Athletic v Derby County | 2.78 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Bristol City v Millwall | 2.64 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, with a 55% confidence rating.
West Ham United are the favourites at 2.43 with LeoVegas (SE), implying roughly a 41% chance. Burnley are priced at 3.05, around 33%.
The draw is available at 3.70 with Betfair, which implies approximately a 27% probability of the match ending level.
The model's pick is Over 2.5 goals at 1.73, but it shows a negative value edge of -5.14%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than our estimated fair value. No selections cleared our value threshold for this fixture.
Burnley vs West Ham United takes place Sun · 15:00 in the Championship.
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