Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Brentford are the favourites at 2.46 (around 41% implied), with Tottenham slightly longer at 2.99 (around 33%).
The narrow price gap between the two sides points to a closely matched contest rather than a one-sided fixture.
The draw at 3.92 implies roughly 26%, reasonable pricing that keeps all three outcomes in play.
The recommended Under 3.0 goals at 1.81 shows about 54% implied confidence but a negative value edge of 3.0%, so it is a modest lean, not a strong overlay.
Team form
Head-to-head: Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from Brentford's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur: pre-match preview
This Premier League clash at Brentford sees the hosts installed as narrow favourites against Tottenham Hotspur. The best available price on Brentford is 2.46, translating to an implied probability of roughly 41%, while Tottenham are rated at 2.99, or about 33%. The gap is modest, marking this out as a fairly even contest in the market's eyes rather than a clear mismatch. The draw is priced at 3.92, implying around 26%, which underlines how open bookmakers consider the outcome. Our model steps away from the result market and instead favours Under 3.0 goals at 1.81, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 54%. It is worth noting the value edge here reads at minus 3.0%, so this is a lean rather than a standout price. In short, Brentford hold a slight edge over Spurs, but the totals angle is where our attention sits for this fixture.
Verdict: The pick is Under 3.0 goals at 1.81, backed by roughly 54% model confidence in a match the odds frame as tight. With a negative value edge of 3.0%, this is a low-conviction lean rather than a priced advantage. Stake modestly and manage your bankroll sensibly.
How it settled: the tip was voided — the match finished 3-0, for a flat-stake return of 0.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
Upcoming Premier League fixtures
All Premier League tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.81.
The tip was voided — final score 3-0 (0.00u at flat stakes).