Brasileirão · Wed · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Bragantino-SP are priced at 1.79, implying roughly 56% win probability, well ahead of Mirassol's 4.69 price and near-21% implied chance.
The draw at 3.69 implies about 27%, keeping that outcome within a plausible range despite the favourite tag on the home side.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.97 carries a model confidence of 49% but a negative value edge of roughly -4%, indicating the odds are not currently favourable relative to the model's own read.
No other markets produced value picks above the site's threshold for this fixture, suggesting limited standout opportunities beyond the highlighted total-goals angle.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.08 |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | 8.98 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 0-1 | 8.4% | 11.86 |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 12.22 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.18 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.47 and 1.11. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Bragantino-SP's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BRA | X | 2 · MIR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.75 | 3.52 | 4.55 |
| Betsson | 1.75 | 3.55 | 4.45 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.72 | 3.55 | 4.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.75 | 3.45 | 4.40 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bragantino-SP host Mirassol in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market has a clear view of the likely outcome. Best prices have Bragantino-SP at 1.79, implying a win probability of roughly 56%, while Mirassol drift out to 4.69, translating to just over 21%. The draw sits at 3.69, or about 27% implied. That gap between the two teams' prices points to a fairly one-sided market assessment, though not an overwhelming one given the draw is priced competitively. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 as its recommended angle, with an implied confidence of 49% but a negative value edge of just over 4%, meaning the price does not currently offer a statistical advantage over the model's own estimate. No other selections cleared our value threshold against market consensus for this game.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.97 is the only flagged angle for this match, but its negative value edge means it should be treated as a marginal, not a strong, pick. Bettors considering it should weigh the modest confidence level and stake cautiously as part of balanced bankroll management.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
| 7 Oct 23:30 | Botafogo v Vasco da Gama | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.97, with a 49% confidence rating.
Bragantino-SP are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.79, implying a win probability of around 56%, compared with Mirassol's 4.69 price and roughly 21% implied chance.
The draw is available at 3.69, which implies an approximate 27% chance according to the market.
The model's recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.97 shows a negative value edge of about -4%, so it is not flagged as strong value, and no other selections met the site's value threshold for this game.
Bragantino-SP vs Mirassol takes place Wed · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
English 
