Brasileirão · Sun · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Bragantino-SP are the favourites at 2.2, implying about a 45% chance, while Corinthians at 3.54 sit near 28%.
The draw at 3.27 implies roughly 31%, a meaningful chunk that reflects genuine uncertainty over the outcome.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.23 carries a market-implied confidence of around 43%.
No value picks cleared the threshold, and the recommended goals bet shows a negative edge of -4.18%, meaning the price is slightly short of fair.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.2% | 7.02 |
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.62 |
| 0-0 | 11.3% | 8.81 |
| 0-1 | 10.4% | 9.58 |
| 2-0 | 8.9% | 11.17 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.15 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.26 and 0.92. These six scorelines cover 66% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Bragantino-SP's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino-SP | 2.15 | 1xBet | 46.5% |
| Corinthians | 3.70 | Betfair | 27.0% |
| Draw | 3.40 | Coolbet | 29.4% |
This Brasileirão fixture pits Bragantino-SP against Corinthians, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Bragantino-SP are priced at 2.2 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 45% chance of taking the three points at home. Corinthians drift out to 3.54, which translates to about 28% in probability terms, marking them as clear underdogs on the day. The draw sits at 3.27, or around 31% implied, suggesting the market sees a stalemate as a genuine possibility. Rather than backing a side, our model leans towards the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.23. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 43%. It is worth noting the value edge on this pick is negative at -4.18%, meaning the odds sit slightly below what the model considers fair. In short, the market tilts towards the home side while the recommended angle looks at total goals instead of the result.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 2.5 goals at 2.23, backed by roughly 43% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -4.18%, so the odds are marginally unfavourable. Treat this as a modest-risk angle rather than a standout spot, and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.23, with a 44% confidence rating.
Bragantino-SP are the favourites at 2.2, implying about a 45% chance. Corinthians are the underdogs at 3.54, around 28% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.27 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 31% chance of the teams sharing the points.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.23 actually shows a negative edge of -4.18%, so the price is slightly below fair value.
Bragantino-SP vs Corinthians takes place Sun · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.
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