English ⚽ Premier League 🕒 20 Sept 2026
Our tip
Bournemouth to win
Odds
3.20
LostResult
0-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
35%Pre-match conf.
-3.03%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Liverpool's 2.24 price implies close to 44.6 percent win probability, the clearest single outcome in the market.
02
Bournemouth's 3.2 price implies around 31.3 percent, notably lower than Liverpool's implied chance.
03
The draw at 3.9 implies roughly 25.6 percent, making it the least likely of the three outcomes by market pricing.
04
The model rates Bournemouth's true winning chance at about 35 percent, above the 31.3 percent implied by the odds, producing a quoted 12.45 percent value edge.
Team form
BOU Bournemouth LDDDL
20 Sept 26 vs Liverpool 0-1
12 Sept 26 vs Brentford 2-2
5 Sept 26 @ Newcastle 2-2
29 Aug 26 vs Everton 1-1
23 Aug 26 @ Man City 1-2
LIV Liverpool WDWDD
20 Sept 26 @ Bournemouth 1-0
12 Sept 26 vs Fulham 0-0
4 Sept 26 @ Ipswich Town 2-0
29 Aug 26 vs Nottingham 2-2
23 Aug 26 @ Newcastle 2-2
Head-to-head: Bournemouth v Liverpool
Full H2H history → L 20 Sept 26
Bournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
W 24 Jan 26
Bournemouth 3-2 LiverpoolPremier League
L 15 Aug 25
Liverpool 4-2 BournemouthPremier League
W/D/L shown from Bournemouth's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool: pre-match preview
Bournemouth host Liverpool in a Premier League fixture where the odds clearly mark the visitors as favourites. Liverpool's price of 2.24 implies a win probability of roughly 44.6 percent, while Bournemouth at 3.2 corresponds to about 31.3 percent, and the draw at 3.9 sits close to 25.6 percent. That gap of over 13 percentage points between the two teams reflects a fairly confident market lean toward Liverpool, though far from an overwhelming one. Our model's recommended play goes against that lean, backing Bournemouth to win at 3.2, citing a market-implied confidence of 35 percent for the hosts and a value edge of 12.45 percent versus the bookmaker price. It is a contrarian angle rather than a banker selection, and should be treated as such within a balanced staking approach.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Bournemouth to win at 3.2, based on a modelled edge of 12.45 percent over the market price. It is a value-driven underdog pick rather than a high-probability certainty, with Liverpool still priced as clear favourites, so this should be sized cautiously within a wider betting bank.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 20 Sept 26
Under 3.5 goalsfinal score 0-1
1.77 +0.77u Upcoming Premier League fixtures
All Premier League tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?+
Our tip was Bournemouth to win at odds of 3.20.
Who is favourite in the Bournemouth vs Liverpool odds?+
Liverpool are favourites at 2.24, which implies close to a 44.6 percent chance of winning, compared with Bournemouth's implied 31.3 percent at 3.2.
What is the draw priced at for this match?+
The draw is available at 3.9, implying roughly a 25.6 percent probability, making it the least likely outcome according to the odds.
Is there a value bet for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?+
Our model flags Bournemouth to win at 3.2 as a value pick, estimating a true win probability of about 35 percent against the market's implied 31.3 percent, a 12.45 percent edge, though no additional value picks cleared the threshold elsewhere.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 0-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).