Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Stoke City are the narrow market favourites at 2.74, just ahead of Bolton Wanderers at 2.8, a gap of under one percentage point in implied probability.
The draw at 3.49 implies roughly 28.7% likelihood, keeping all three match-result outcomes fairly closely bunched.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.03 carries a model confidence of 48%, against a break-even requirement near 49%, giving a slightly negative value edge of -1.86%.
No value picks versus market consensus cleared the threshold for either team to win outright, reflecting how balanced the bookmakers view this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.58 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.26 |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | 11.51 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.09 |
| 2-0 | 6.6% | 15.11 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.52 and 1.34. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BW | X | 2 · SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT) | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.55 | 3.42 | 2.74 |
| Betfair | 2.52 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.58 | 3.31 | 2.72 |
| Betsson | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| 1xBet | 2.53 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bolton Wanderers host Stoke City in a Championship clash where the bookmakers see almost nothing between the two sides. Best-priced odds have Stoke City marginally preferred at 2.74, with Bolton Wanderers close behind at 2.8, translating to implied probabilities of roughly 36.5% and 35.7% respectively. The draw, priced at 3.49, carries an implied chance of about 28.7%, underlining how tightly matched this fixture looks on paper. Rather than picking a side to win, our model points toward the game's overall goal output, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.03 with Pinnacle. That price implies a break-even probability near 49%, while the model's own confidence sits at 48%, meaning the suggested wager is close to fair value rather than a clear-cut edge. It's a preview built purely on what the market is telling us, with no outside team news factored in.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 2.03 is the only angle the model surfaces here, but its own numbers show a small negative edge rather than a clear advantage. It's a reasonable, low-goals-leaning option in a tightly priced match, not a high-confidence play, so stake sizing should reflect that modest edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 48% confidence rating.
Stoke City hold a slight edge in the betting at 2.74 compared to Bolton Wanderers at 2.8, though the gap is small enough that the market treats this as a closely contested match.
The draw is priced at 3.49 with Nordic Bet, implying roughly a 28.7% chance, which is competitive with both teams' win probabilities.
No match-result value picks cleared the model's threshold. The only recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 2.03, and even that shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.86%, so it should be viewed as a marginal rather than strong opportunity.
Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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