Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Bologna are favourites at 2.22 (about 45% implied), with Lazio the outsiders at 3.72 (roughly 27%).
The draw is priced at 3.45, an implied probability of around 29%, reflecting a reasonably open market.
The recommended Over 2.25 goals bet at 1.92 carries about 50% market-implied confidence.
That goals line shows a negative value edge of -4.0%, so it is priced slightly below fair value on our model.
Team form
Head-to-head: Bologna v Lazio
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from Bologna's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Bologna vs Lazio: pre-match preview
This Serie A meeting between Bologna and Lazio sees the home side installed as the market favourite, with Bologna priced around 2.22 against Lazio at 3.72. In probability terms that translates to roughly 45% for a Bologna win and about 27% for a Lazio away success, so the market leans clearly towards the hosts without treating the outcome as anything close to a formality. The draw sits at 3.45, an implied likelihood of around 29%, underlining how open the pricing is once you account for the bookmaker margin. Our model, meanwhile, steps away from the match result and looks to the total, recommending Over 2.25 goals at 1.92 with market-implied confidence near 50%. Worth noting is the negative value edge of -4.0% on that line, meaning the price is slightly below fair value on our numbers rather than a standout opportunity in this fixture.
Verdict: The model favours Over 2.25 goals at 1.92, a near coin-flip proposition by implied probability. With a -4.0% value edge, this is not a strong-value spot, so treat it as a marginal lean rather than a priority play and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip was voided, for a flat-stake return of 0.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Over 2.25 goals at odds of 1.93.
Bologna are the market favourites at 2.22, implying roughly a 45% chance. Lazio are the outsiders at 3.72, around 27%.
The draw is priced at 3.45 with Unibet (SE), which implies a probability of about 29%.
Our model's recommended Over 2.25 goals at 1.92 carries a negative value edge of -4.0%, so it is priced slightly below fair value. No selections cleared our value threshold here.
The tip was voided (0.00u at flat stakes).