Champions League · Wed · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Dortmund are priced as clear favourites at 2.08, implying roughly a 48% win probability compared to Bodø/Glimt's 29% at 3.5.
The model estimates Bodø/Glimt's fair win probability at 30%, translating into a large 35.48% edge over the market price.
The draw at 4.21 also shows value, with a fair probability of 26% against an implied probability closer to 24%, giving an 8.73% edge.
Bodø/Glimt's recommended bet carries a market-implied confidence of only 39%, underlining that this remains an underdog selection rather than a market favourite.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.17 |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | 12.87 |
| 2-2 | 7.2% | 13.93 |
| 1-2 | 6.8% | 14.73 |
| 3-1 | 5.8% | 17.27 |
| 3-2 | 5.1% | 19.76 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.12 and 1.75. These six scorelines cover 41% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Bodø/Glimt's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BOD | X | 2 · BD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.43 | 4.16 | 2.07 |
| Coolbet | 3.25 | 4.30 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 4.10 | 2.06 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.30 | 4.05 | 2.05 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.34 | 4.05 | 2.01 |
| GTbets | 3.35 | 3.90 | 2.02 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bodø/Glimt host Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League with the market clearly leaning toward the visitors. Dortmund's best price of 2.08 implies roughly a 48% chance of victory, making them the favourite on paper, while Bodø/Glimt's 3.5 works out to an implied probability near 29%. The draw, priced at 4.21, sits at the bottom of the market's expectations at around 24%. Our model, however, diverges from that consensus, flagging Bodø/Glimt at 3.5 as a value play with a fair probability estimate of 30% and a substantial edge of 35.48% against the market price. The draw also shows a notable edge of 8.73% based on a fair probability of 26%. This gap between market pricing and model-derived probability is the central storyline of this preview, and it shapes how the recommended bet is framed below.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Bodø/Glimt to win at 3.5, based on a model-estimated 30% win probability against a market price implying less. The edge is sizeable, but backing an underdog priced above 3.0 in a Champions League away tie for Dortmund carries clear risk and should be sized accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Arsenal v Lille | 1.33 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | 1.32 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | 2.42 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 2.08 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 26.00 | 14.70 | 1.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.97 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 51% confidence rating.
Borussia Dortmund are the market favourites, priced at 2.08, which implies roughly a 48% chance of winning, compared to Bodø/Glimt's implied 29% at 3.5.
The best available price for the draw is 4.21, implying an approximate 24% chance, though the model's fair probability estimate is slightly higher at 26%.
According to the model, yes, Bodø/Glimt's price of 3.5 offers a 35.48% edge versus a fair win probability estimate of 30%, though this is still an underdog bet with real risk.
Bodø/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund takes place Wed · 19:00 in the Champions League.
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