Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Blackburn (2.72) and Cardiff (2.70) are priced almost identically, implying win probabilities of roughly 36.8% and 37.0%, a near coin-flip on paper.
The draw at 3.75 implies about 26.7%, noticeably lower than either team's win chance, suggesting bookmakers lean slightly toward a decisive result.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.65 carries a 58% model confidence, below the 60.6% implied by the price itself, producing a negative value edge of -4.81%.
No selection in this match currently clears the site's value threshold versus market consensus, meaning this preview leans on probability framing rather than identified market inefficiencies.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.70 |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | 8.55 |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | 9.94 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.05 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.26 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.29 and 1.11. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BR | X | 2 · CC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.66 | 3.75 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.71 | 3.56 | 2.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.45 | 3.65 | 2.70 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.72 | 3.50 | 2.47 |
| Betsson | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.45 |
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.48 | 2.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Blackburn Rovers host Cardiff City in a Championship fixture where the betting market sees almost no gap between the two sides. Best-priced odds have Blackburn at 2.72 and Cardiff marginally shorter at 2.70, translating to implied win probabilities of roughly 36.8% and 37.0% respectively, while the draw at 3.75 implies around 26.7%. That spread points to a genuinely open contest with no clear favourite according to the bookmakers consulted. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 as its recommended angle, built on an implied confidence of 58%. It's worth noting the raw odds imply a slightly higher probability (about 60.6%) than the model's own confidence figure, producing a value edge of -4.81%, so this is a directional lean rather than a clear-cut value opportunity. No side qualifies as a value pick against market consensus in this instance.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.65 is the model's lean, but its own confidence sits below what the price implies, giving a negative edge of -4.81%. This makes it a moderate-risk pick rather than a clear value bet, and stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.74 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 58% confidence rating.
The market is essentially split, with Cardiff City very marginally favoured at 2.70 against Blackburn Rovers at 2.72, implying win probabilities of about 37.0% and 36.8% respectively.
The draw is priced at 3.75 with Betfair, which implies a probability of roughly 26.7%, lower than either team's implied win chance.
No selection meets the site's value threshold against market consensus for this fixture. The model's recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.65 actually carries a slightly negative edge of -4.81%, so it should be viewed as a directional lean rather than confirmed value.
Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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