English ⚽ Primeira Liga 🕒 13 Sept 2026
Our tip
Benfica to win
Odds
1.88
WonResult
3-1Final score
+0.88uProfit
80%Pre-match conf.
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Benfica are priced at 1.18, implying an approximate 85 percent win probability and marking them heavy favourites in this Primeira Liga meeting.
02
The draw at 6.25 and Gil Vicente at 12.0 imply roughly 16 percent and 8 percent chances respectively, reflecting how the market rates an upset as unlikely.
03
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.53 carries a model confidence of 60 percent but a value edge of -8.12 percent, meaning the model sees the price as slightly short of fair value rather than a clear overlay.
04
No value picks were flagged against market consensus, suggesting the odds across bookmakers are broadly aligned with expected probabilities for this fixture.
Team form
BEN Benfica WWWWW
13 Sept 26 vs Gil Vicente 3-1
9 Sept 26 @ Moreirense 4-0
5 Sept 26 @ Marítimo 3-0
31 Aug 26 vs Estoril Praia 2-1
17 Aug 26 @ Casa Pia 7-0
GV Gil Vicente DLLDW
19 Sept 26 vs Marítimo 1-1
13 Sept 26 @ SL Benfica 1-3
6 Sept 26 vs Acad. Viseu 0-1
30 Aug 26 @ Famalicão 0-0
24 Aug 26 vs Casa Pia 2-0
Head-to-head: Benfica v Gil Vicente
Full H2H history → W 13 Sept 26
SL Benfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
W 2 Mar 26
Gil Vicente 1-2 SL BenficaPrimeira Liga
W 26 Sept 25
SL Benfica 2-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
W/D/L shown from Benfica's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Benfica vs Gil Vicente: pre-match preview
Benfica's home date with Gil Vicente in the Primeira Liga sees the market lean heavily toward the hosts. Best-priced odds of 1.18 on Benfica imply a win probability of roughly 85 percent, a figure that leaves little room for a competitive read on the match result itself. The draw sits at 6.25 (about 16 percent implied) and Gil Vicente's 12.0 price points to just an 8 percent chance for the away side, at least as bookmakers frame it. With the outright market so one-sided, our recommended angle steps away from the win-draw-win line altogether and looks at Under 3.5 goals at 1.53, a price that implies around 65 percent likelihood of three or fewer goals in the game. It's a market that can offer more balanced value when a fixture is this lopsided on paper.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 1.53 is the highlighted angle, sitting apart from a match-result market that heavily favours Benfica. The negative value edge indicates the price isn't especially generous by the model's own estimate, so this leans toward a moderate-confidence selection rather than a standout opportunity. Stake sizing should reflect that caution.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 3-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.88 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 13 Sept 26
Under 3.5 goalsfinal score 3-1
1.65 -1.00u Upcoming Primeira Liga fixtures
All Primeira Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:00 | Santa Clara v Braga | 34.00 | 1.38 | 30.00 |
| 20 Sept 17:01 | Estoril v Casa Pia | 100.00 | 7.50 | 4.82 |
| 20 Sept 19:30 | FC Porto v Benfica | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primeira Liga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +13 | 18 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Acad. Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | CD Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Benfica vs Gil Vicente?+
Our tip was Benfica to win at odds of 1.88.
Who is favourite in the Benfica vs Gil Vicente match?+
Benfica are strong favourites, priced at 1.18 which implies an approximate 85 percent chance of victory according to the best available odds.
What is the draw priced at for this Primeira Liga fixture?+
The draw is available at 6.25, implying roughly a 16 percent probability, well behind Benfica's implied win chance.
Is there value in betting on this Benfica vs Gil Vicente game?+
The match-result market shows no flagged value picks above threshold. The recommended alternative, Under 3.5 goals at 1.53, has a model confidence of 60 percent but a slightly negative value edge of -8.12 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than standout opportunity.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 3-1 (+0.88u at flat stakes).